Study on the Real Estate Credit Risk Based on System Dynamics

Yin, Jingjing; Xie, Zhenzhen; Guo, Jingjuan

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-32054-5_168

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…There are many methods to determine the parameters in the system dynamics model, such as the observational method, empirical method, fitting method, estimation method and experimental optimization method (Yin, Xie & Guo, 2013). Some parameters in the social economic system are difficult to get an accurate calculation due to many influential factors.…”

Section: (4) the Other Parameters Determinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Logistics Industry Development Policy of Beijing Based on System Dynamic

Dou

et al. 2014

JIEM

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Purpose: This paper is committed to design a logistics industry development policy model based on system dynamic to simulate the policy measures which promote region economic and logistics efficiency. The interaction between logistic industry development policy and economy needs to be investigated and the influence degree of logistic efficiency affected by industry policy needs to be identified too.Design/methodology/approach: In order to achieve the objective, it makes a system analysis from industry perspective to divide system into economic growth subsystem, logistics demand subsystem and logistics supply subsystem. Then the hypothesis and the boundaries are defined, and the causal diagram and system flow diagrams are drawn. The paper designs parameters and structural equation by the sample of Beijing using the econometrics model and takes model validation. Taking Beijing as an example, logistics industry development policy is simulated from the aspect of technological progress, increasing fixed assets investment, adjusting the industrial structure proportion and comprehensive policy by changing the parameters using Vensim-PLE. Findings:After logistics development policy is highly simulated by system dynamic model of logistics industry development policy, it is found that the policies of technological progress, fixed assets investment increasing, the industrial structure proportion adjustment and the -573-Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management -http://dx.doi.org/10.3926/jiem.1036 comprehensive policy have different function to affect GDP, logistics demand, supply capacity and actual logistics costs.Originality/value: Compared with the previous research, this paper analyzes the interactive mechanism between logistics industry policy and region economy from a system perspective and establishes system dynamics model of logistics industry development policy to make up for the limitation of previous research.

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Section: (4) the Other Parameters Determinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Logistics Industry Development Policy of Beijing Based on System Dynamic

Dou

et al. 2014

JIEM

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“…So we need to quantify the impact of tax changes on prices. With the system dynamics software-Vensim PLE to establish the causal relationship of the influence factors, we use the historical data of 2001-2012 to operate the system simulation and model test, meanwhile forecast the impact on the future price (Yin, Xie & Guo, 2012).…”

Section: Analysis Of the Impact Of Real Estate Taxes On Real Estate Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design optimization of real estate tax and effect analysis in China

Guo

Hao

Ren

2014

JIEM

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Abstract:Purpose: The objective of this research is to reform the current real estate tax system and establish the real estate tax system suitable for China's national conditions. Design/methodology: Based on the necessity of the real estate tax reform, the paper studies the system optimization and its effects analysis of the real estate tax. At last, the paper uses the system dynamics to demonstrate the feasibility of the real estate tax from an empirical point. Findings:With the system dynamics, we can establish the causal relationship of the influence factors and forecast the impact on the future real estate prices. It can also provide some suggestions for China's real estate tax reform. Research limitations/implications:The establishment of the model might not be very mature, so we need the further study and improvement.Originality/value: This study was the first to use system dynamics to analyze the impact of real estate taxes on real estate prices, and we hope to provide some suggestions for China's real estate tax reform.Keywords: real estate tax, design optimization, effect analysis, system dynamics -532-Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management -http://dx

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Study on the Real Estate Credit Risk Based on System Dynamics

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Study on Logistics Industry Development Policy of Beijing Based on System Dynamic

Study on Logistics Industry Development Policy of Beijing Based on System Dynamic

Design optimization of real estate tax and effect analysis in China

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