Study on the effect of measles control programmes on periodic structures of disease epidemics in a large Chinese city

Abstract

Measles is regarded as a disease that can be eliminated by vaccination; however, disease epidemics still occur in Wuhan, China. This study explored the effect of measles control programmes on the periodic structure of disease epidemics in Wuhan. The monthly reported measles incidence from 1953 to 2008 was divided into pre-vaccine range (1953-1965) and post-vaccine range (1966-2008). For the incidence in each range, spectral analysis was conducted and power spectral density (PSD) was obtained. In PSD for the pre-vaccine range, the most dominant spectral line was observed at a 2·0-year period, as in the case of Japan. It was confirmed that spectral lines of periodic modes longer than a 1-year cycle of the incidence rates behave in response to the introduction of measles control programmes. The investigation of periodic structures of measles epidemics will contribute to effective measles control programmes in Wuhan.

Effect of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on dengue fever and leptospirosis infections in Manila, the Philippines

“…For example, this was done in our previous studies on measles using a 56-year data duration [33] and influenza using a 51-year duration [34]. The longer duration data (>2 years) on DF and leptospirosis in the present study (Fig.…”

“…To elucidate the temporal evolution of such nonlinear phenomena, it is preferable to deal with shorter time-series through segment-based time-series analysis [22]. For example, this was done in our previous studies on measles using a 56-year data duration [33] and influenza using a 51-year duration [34]. The longer duration data (>2 years) on DF and leptospirosis in the present study (Fig.…”

Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

“…These results support the idea EVD epidemics may break out periodically, though the disease will reach a dynamic equilibrium point with a shorter period between epidemics of progressively weaker intensity. Periodic fluctuations of EVD epidemics are similar to those of other diseases, such as the measles and chickenpox [24,25]. Therefore, we should be vigilant for the reemergence of EVD.…”

Effect of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on rotavirus infections in Kolkata, India

“…We used the method of time-series analysis combined with spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in frequency domain and least squares method (LSM) in time domain, as proposed in our previous work [14–17]. The time-series analysis revealed an association between rotavirus epidemics and meteorological factors, which are not visually apparent.…”

“…However, the linear Poisson regression model using random noise has a weakness in interpreting multiple periodicities with characteristic fluctuations caused by nonlinear dynamics. Our group has already proposed a newly devised method for time-series analysis, which allowed us to make the extremely precise determination of periodic structures of nonlinear time-series including a short data sequence [14–17].…”