Study on probability evaluation method of aircraft overshoot runway based on logistic regression

Abstract

A runway safety zone is an area at both ends and sides of a runway to protect the safety of an aircraft when it overruns/veers off the runway. A civil airport runway safety zone is a rectangular area composed of a runway end safety zone and lifts belt. The military airport has no clear concept of a runway safety zone, but there are soil runways, flat areas, terminal safety lanes, and other facilities at both ends and sides of the runway, which play the same role as the safety zone. The research method of aircraft overshoot runway risk is selected. Based on analyzing the characteristics of the influencing factors of aircraft overshooting runways, according to the dichotomous characteristics of the influencing factors and accident results, a logistic regression analysis based on the probability assessment method of aircraft overshooting/overshooting runway is proposed.