Study on Measuring of Real Estate Speculative Bubble: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

The investor's expectation of future price increases on real estate is causing to further rise of prices. In the 1990s, Turkey's real estate price / rental income ratio was around 10, now is between 17-20 years. On the other hand, as a result of insufficient innovation and incentive application of industry, some companies have left their core activity and moved to the consruction industry. Studies using time series analysis with Turkey's data show that GDP growth and interest rates have a great impact on investment decisions of consruction companies. Using Turkstat, Bloomberg and Eurostat data, the empirical part of this study present the relationship between interest rate and GDP growth and consruction investments. The analysis will continue with cross-city-time-series analysis for a sample of 4 well-developed cities of turkey, in terms of construction investments. Finally, measuring the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio, the gross rental yield and the house ownership ratio will be compared to those of the metropolitan cities in Europe, whether there is a real estate bubble in Turkey or not.

The asymmetric effects of real variables on real housing prices: a nonlinear ARDL analysis for Turkey

“…In addition, there are also regional or city-based studies (Üçdoğruk, 2001; Yankaya and ve Çelik, 2005; Baldemir et al , 2007; Özsoy and Şahin, 2009; Kitapci et al , 2017; Afsar and Dogan, 2018; Akkuş, 2021; Özsoy and Şahin, 2021; Gökler, 2021). Some studies investigate whether housing prices cause a bubble (Binay and Salman, 2008; Kaya et al , 2012; Geyik, 2012; Büyükduman, 2014; Erol, 2015; Zeren and Erguzel, 2015; Karasu, 2015; Coşken, 2016; Pitros and Arayici, 2016; Solak and Kabadayi, 2016; Pitros et al , 2016; Coşkun and Jadevicius, 2017, Karakoyun and Yildirim, 2017; Berk, 2017; İskenderoğlu and Akdağ, 2019; Abioğlu, 2020; Güler and Gökçe, 2020; Ayan and Eken, 2021; Coskun and Pitros, 2022). Moreover, some recent studies research the effects of Covid-19 pandemic on Turkish housing market (Ahsan and Sadak, 2021; Kartal et al , 2021; Kaynak et al , 2021; Aliefendioğlu et al , 2021).…”