Study on forecasting model of transmission line failure rate and outage time

Abstract

Given the complex problem of transmission line failure and outage and the difficulty of predicting the failure rate and outage time of the transmission line with certainty, the accident prediction information is provided for power grid managers. This paper proposes a three-order fundamental Fourier function fault rate prediction model based on a monthly time scale. This method does not rely on any strict assumptions and is driven by the real transmission line fault data in a province. The fitting results reflect the monthly bimodal fault characteristic distribution law of the transmission line fault rate. On this basis, the historical outage time is analyzed and counted, the probability density distribution characteristics of forced outage time are proposed, and the ExpGro function is used to fit it. The results show that the prediction results of the model proposed in this paper have good sharpness and reliability, which has a guiding significance for actual maintenance work.