Study on Change of the Glacier Mass Balance and Its Response to Extreme Climate of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in Tianshan Mountains in Recent 41 Years

Abstract

Glaciers are susceptible indicators of climate change and crucial parts of the world’s water cycle. In the context of global warming, we took the Urumqi Glacier No.1 (UG1) as an example, which is situated at the source of the Urumqi River on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, combined with the climate data of Daxigou Meteorological Station from 1980 to 2020, and the change of glacier mass balance and its response to extreme climate are discussed. The results suggest that the glacier mass balance of UG1 showed a downward trend over the studied 41-year period, and the mass loss increased. The cumulative glacier mass balance value was −19,776 mm w.e., and the average annual value was −482 mm w.e.a−1. The Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the change point occurred around 1994, and the mass balance of UG1 became more negative after 1994. In the same period, the changing mass balance trend of UG1 was not the same in different seasons. The inter-annual variation of summer mass balance was drastic, showing a marked downward trend; the inter-annual change of winter mass balance was small, showing a slight uptrend. The changing of extreme climate indices where UG1 is located showed that only TX90p and TX10p changed observably from 1980 to 2020, and the extreme precipitation indices changed evidently and had been on the rise. The changing trend of extreme climate indices indicated that the temperature was rising, the warming was significant, and the precipitation was increasing. During 1980–2020, the glacier mass balance was substantially correlated with the extreme temperature indices (TX90p, TXx) but not with the extreme precipitation indices. Analyzing on a seasonal scale, the summer mass balance was memorably correlated with the extreme temperature indices (TX90p, TX10p, TXx), and the correlation coefficient between winter mass balance and the extreme precipitation index R95p and winter precipitation was in the range 0.36~0.40 (p < 0.05). According to the correlation between glacier mass balance and extreme climate indices, the summer mass balance was mainly affected by temperature, and the winter mass balance was affected primarily by precipitation.