Study on a Decision Making Methodology with Uncertainties in the Selection Process of Preliminary Investigation Areas

Abstract

The selection of Preliminary Investigation Areas (PIAs) to be considered in the siting procedure for a Japanese High Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) repository, will require Site-specific Evaluation Factors (SSEF) to be considered. Evaluation of these factors requires a methodology for taking into account various kinds of uncertainties in varied types of literature data. The study described here evaluated the application of Evidential Support Logic (ESL) for this purpose. The approach involves constructing hierarchical process models. Uncertainties are then propagated from the lowest processes, corresponding to data or information, through intermediate processes, to some top level process of interest, such as “assessing the existence of an active fault”. To evaluate the usefulness of ESL a hypothetical site was assessed. The results demonstrate the value of the approach to support decision-making in the selection of PIAs.