Study of the underground tunnel planning. Cognitive modelling

Abstract

A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is proposed based on the use of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using the foresight methodology allows, with the help of expert estimation procedures, to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, cognitive modeling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behavior of a complex system for a strategic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The suggested study allows the reliability planning of underground tunnels on the basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority.