Study of Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis in Songhua River Basin

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the influence of time and precipitation as covariates on the flood frequency distribution in the Songhua River tributaries under the nonstationarity assumption and to investigate the possibility of nonstationary models’ application in river management scope demarcation work. Nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NS-FFA) was conducted in three typical basins of the Songhua River (in Northeastern China) based on the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), and stationary flood frequency analysis was used as a comparison. Under the stationarity assumption, the Pearson type Ⅲ (P-Ⅲ) distribution is the main theoretical distribution for the flood extremum at hydrological stations, followed by a lognormal (LN) distribution. Under the nonstationarity assumption, when time is considered a covariate, the optimal theoretical distribution of the flood extremum is mainly LN (with 63.75%), followed by the Weibull distribution (with 18.75%). When precipitation is considered as a covariate, the optimal theoretical distribution of the flood extremum is mainly LN (with 57.5%). We attempted to apply several FFA methods to calculate the design frequency in this study, referring to the work requirements for river management scope demarcation in three typical basins, and came to the following conclusions. From the simulation results of the p = 10% flood at the export stations of typical basins, it can be seen that time-covariate NS-FFA obtained the best simulation results. Two cases of the simulation under the stationarity assumption are positive, which will lead to a high design scale. The time-covariate GAMLSS in NS-FFA has the advantages of higher calculation accuracy and simpler processes. To better balance construction costs and disaster protection requirements, NS-FFA can be used to determine the design scale of water conservation projects; additionally, it can be used to demarcate the scope of river management. The accuracy of GAMLSS for FFA is also influenced by the complexity of the terrain, with basins with relatively simple terrain having higher calculation accuracy.