Studies on natural gas reserves multi-cycle growth law in Sichuan Basin based on multi-peak identification and peak parameter prediction

Li, Haitao; Yu, Guoqing; Fang, Yizhu; Chen, Yanru; Wang, Chenyu; Zhang, Dongming

doi:10.1007/s13202-021-01212-3

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…This statistical approach provides a rigorous framework for evaluating production variability and anticipating unexpected events that may impact natural gas exploitation. There are also studies and models used to forecast the evolution trend of natural gas reserves using the multi-cycle Hubbert and Gauss models that give very good results [28,29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Production Forecasting at Natural Gas Wells

Prundurel,

Stan,

Pană

et al. 2024

Processes

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In Romania, natural gas production is concentrated in two large producers, OMV Petrom and Romgaz. However, there are also smaller companies in the natural gas production area. In these companies, the deposits are mostly mature, or new deposits have low production capacity. Thus, the production forecast is very important for the continued existence of these companies. The model is based on the pressure variation in the gas reservoir, and the exponential model with production decline is currently used by gas and oil producers. Following the variation in the production of the gas wells, we found that in many cases, the Gaussian and Hubbert forecast models are more suitable for simulating the production pattern of gas wells. The models used to belong to the category of poorly conditioned models, with little data, usually called gray models. Papers published in this category are based on data collected over a period of time and provide a forecast of the model for the next period. The mathematical method can lead to a very good approximation of the known data, as well as short-term forecasting in the continuation of the time interval, for which we have these data. The neural network method requires more data for the network learning stage. Increasing the number of known variables is conducive to a successful model. Often, we do not have this data, or obtaining it is expensive and uneconomical for short periods of possible exploitation. The network model sometimes captures a fairly local pattern and changing conditions require the model to be remade. The model is not valid for a large category of gas wells. The Hubbert and Gauss models used in the article have a more comprehensive character, including a wide category of gas wells whose behavior as evolutionary stages is similar. The model is adapted according to practical observations by reducing the production growth period; the layout is asymmetric around the production peak; and the production range is reduced. Thus, an attempt is made to replace the exponential model with the Hubbert and Gauss models, which were found to be in good agreement with the production values. These models were completed using the Monte Carlo method and matrix of risk evaluation. A better appreciation of monthly production, which is an important aspect of supply contracts, and cumulative production, which is important for evaluating the utility of the investment, is ensured. In addition, we can determine the risk associated with the realization of production at a certain moment of exploitation, generating a complete picture of the forecast over the entire operating interval. A comparison with production results on a case study confirms the benefits of the forecasting procedure used.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Production Forecasting at Natural Gas Wells

Prundurel,

Stan,

Pană

et al. 2024

Processes

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“…The efficient recovery and utilization of the excess energy of high-pressure fluid are one of the crucial means for energysaving and emission reduction, which has a broad application prospect in the sustainable development of energy resources, such as the fast-growing natural gas industry [1]. As a cleaner energy source, natural gas is very important for ensuring the sustainable and development of economy and society [2]. With the improvement of drilling and other mining technologies [3], the unconventional gas resource, such as the shale gas, has been effectively mined [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Test of Gas Wave Ejector in Coalbed Methane Well Site and Impact Analysis of Fluid Medium Characteristics on Its Pressure Port Design

Zhao

et al. 2023

International Journal of Energy Research

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Gas wave ejector (GWE) is an efficient energy conversion device which can recover and utilize excess pressure energy of high pressure fluid. It has significant application value in the sustainable development of energy resources, including the exploitation and transportation of natural gas. The first practical application test of GWE in the natural gas industry is completed in this study. The mechanisms and regulations of the effect of actual gas properties on the pressure port design of GWE were also investigated. The primary conclusions are as follows: the composition of working medium significantly affects the propagation velocity of pressure waves. The wave propagation velocity increases as methane purity (φCH4) rises. The equipment efficiency was decreased by up to 23% of the optimal value as a result of the variation in port position brought on by the increase in φCH4 from 0.7 to 1.0. The variation of working pressure ratio has a greater impact on the device performance than the pressure value when the pressure port design kept unchanged. The intake temperature fluctuation in the range of -30°C to 50°C has no obvious influence on the ideal port design. In the coal-bed methane well site industrial test, GWE accomplishes a recovery of low-pressure well by roughly 8.83 × 10 3 N m 3 / d , demonstrating its excellent ejection capacity. In addition, the variable speed test conducted under different working conditions shows that the equipment performance can be effectively enhanced by adjusting the rotation speed as the equipment structure remains unchanged with the changing working pressure/pressure ratio. In the field test range of this study, the increase of equipment ejection rate obtained by speed adjustment can rise up to 12% of the corresponding value at the designed rotation speed.

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Studies on natural gas reserves multi-cycle growth law in Sichuan Basin based on multi-peak identification and peak parameter prediction

Cited by 2 publications

References 36 publications

Production Forecasting at Natural Gas Wells

Production Forecasting at Natural Gas Wells

Preliminary Test of Gas Wave Ejector in Coalbed Methane Well Site and Impact Analysis of Fluid Medium Characteristics on Its Pressure Port Design

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