LONG-TERM GOALS AND OBJECTIVESThe long-term goals and objectives of this research are to develop a physical understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change processes. Towards this goal, this year's work focused on two main areas: asymmetric dynamics of the TC inner-core region and completion of our intensification study of Hurricane Opal (1995). These projects are complementary and represent important advances in our understanding of intensity change mechanisms. The following pages summarize our findings.• Simulation And Analysis Of Vorticity Mixing In Baroclinic, Hurricane-Like Vortices:
APPROACHEvidence for complex, asymmetric inner-core dynamics in tropical cyclones has been observed for some time, such as the appearance of polygonal eyewalls in satellite and radar observations, and also in-situ observations of mesovortices within the eye. Inner-core asymmetric processes have recently been implicated as essential for rapid hurricane intensification (Emanuel, 1997). In the previous year, we initiated a more thorough study of these phenomena by considering the asymmetric dynamics and stability of fully three-dimensional disturbances in a three-dimensional, hurricane-like vortex. Considerable progress has been made on both research fronts.
WORK COMPLETED, RESULTS, IMPACT, AND APPLICATIONSWe are studying the dynamics of inner-core asymmetries with two complementary methods. The first involves directly simulating such asymmetries with a high-resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical model (RAMS). Working with Lewis Grasso of CIRA, we have simulated the emergence, growth, and nonlinear equilibration of asymmetries in the core of an idealized, initially balanced, hurricane-like vortex. The second approach involves a classical stability analysis of such vortices. This work extends previous work by allowing for a truly three-dimensional, baroclinic vortex, with substantial variations of the wind and temperature fields in the vertical direction. The formulation is constructed so that, like the basic-state, the associated eigenfunctions can vary arbitrarily in both the vertical and radial directions, retaining harmonic variations only in the azimuthal direction. From this analysis we have found that hurricane-like vortices are indeed unstable to low wavenumber perturbations that appear in the eyewall region, in remarkable agreement with previous twodimensional studies (e.g., Weber and Smith, 1993;Schubert et al., 1999). The unstable modes are