Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique

Complex decisions made simple: a primer on stochastic dynamic programming

“…p * is the set of decisions (A) associated with the maximum value function of the set of states [V (X)]. Let b be the discount factor, representing the value of the reward gained in the next period relative to the reward obtained in the current period (Moore, Hauser & McCarthy 2008;Martin et al 2011). It can also reflect a measure of confidence level in the predictions of the dynamic model.…”

“…Early work in resource management included applications to pest control (Winkler 1975) and fisheries management (Walters 1975;Reed 1979). In conservation biology, SDP has been successfully used to produce evidence-based management recommendations (optimization of resources allocation: Westphal et al 2003;Martin et al 2007;Chad es et al 2011; management of natural resources in the context of global change: Martin et al 2011). In forestry, SDP allowed achieving a balance between the protection of biological diversity and sustainable timber production (Lembersky & Johnson 1975;Teeter, Somers & Sullivan 1993;Richards, Possingham & Tizard 1999).…”

Broader perspective on ecosystem sustainability: Consequences for decision making

“…Elements of structured decision making can be adapted for highly dynamic environments including frequently reexamining objectives, adapting management actions to changes, and incorporating model uncertainty into predictions (72). Although private and public decision makers work to prevent shifts from desirable to undesirable ecosystem states, consideration of the dynamic and varied nature of Gulf Coast ecosystems could improve management in all phases of decisions.…”

A Strategy for Monitoring and Managing Declines in an Amphibian Community

“…Initiation of a new management program may depend on, for example, current levels of funding and reluctance of agencies to embark on new programs. Although a formal analysis can be conducted across the range of potential time horizons (Martin et al ), we used the species‐specific trend and covariate estimates and assumptions about ranges in system response to management to illustrate the potential variation in future species richness given a management decision was implemented 1, 5, or 10 years in the future (Fig. ).…”