Structural Time Series Model using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Rice Price
Rifdatun Ni'mah
Abstract:Although forecasts of future events are simply uncertain, predicting is one of the most important aspects of future planning. Accurate rice price predictions tend to be helpful for wholesalers, producers, and farmers to develop plans and strategies to reduce the risks that can be faced. Structural time series models are the most plausible alternative for long-term forecasting. This paper proposes an alternate method for modeling average rice prices using structural time series along with Bayesian parameter inf… Show more
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