Structural Inequality and Ethnic Bloc Voting*

Abstract

Objective. A large body of ethnic politics literature suggests that horizontal inequalities exacerbate ethnic conflict. However, the relationship between intergroup inequality and ethnic bloc voting behavior has escaped empirical analysis. We test the relationship between ethnic bloc voting and horizontal inequality by examining how relative disparity affects individuals' probability of supporting the same political party as other co-ethnics. Methods. This project uses data from the Integrated World and European Values Survey to test the relationship between relative disparity and ethnic bloc support in ethnically polarized states from 1981 to 2006. Results. Our findings indicate that the probability of supporting the same party as other co-ethnics is influenced by within-group as well as between-group inequality, while being relatively unaffected by individual-level income. Conclusion. We conclude that increasing horizontal inequality, and not individual resources, leads to higher rates of ethnically polarized voting, which may lead to greater levels of ethnic conflict.

Turning discontent into votes: Economic inequality and ethnic outbidding

“…Next, as Huber and Suryanarayan (2016) argue, inequality contributes to the increasing salience of ethnicity by making it easier for groups to organize bargaining. Inequality reduces the costs of committing to specific policy outcomes designed to benefit specific groups, which increases the likelihood of ethnic based organizing, increasing the likelihood of supporting an ethnic party (Houle 2015; Stewart and McGauvran 2019). Economic inequality also reduces cross-pressure, a potential situation where voters are conflicted between options that represent their ethnicity and those that represent their class, reduce the incentive for ethnic voting (Dunning and Harrison 2010), on voters.…”

“…Ethnic parties adopt this strategy because, unlike mainstream parties, they are limited in their ability to increase vote share by making appeals across ethnic lines, which often includes moderating policy preferences or targets (Gormley-Heenan and Macginty 2008; Mitchel et al 2009; Zuber 2013). Recent research has concluded that increases in inequality are associated with increases in ethnic voting (Houle 2015; Stewart and McGauvran 2019), often driven by individuals turning to co-ethnic parties or candidates in an attempt to receive more focused benefits (Bratton et al, 2012). In fact, this research indicates that inequality is a much better predictor of ethnic political mobilization than either individual (Stewart and McGauvran 2019) or group-based resources (Cederman et al, 2011).…”

“…Recent research has concluded that increases in inequality are associated with increases in ethnic voting (Houle 2015; Stewart and McGauvran 2019), often driven by individuals turning to co-ethnic parties or candidates in an attempt to receive more focused benefits (Bratton et al, 2012). In fact, this research indicates that inequality is a much better predictor of ethnic political mobilization than either individual (Stewart and McGauvran 2019) or group-based resources (Cederman et al, 2011). Researchers have consistently found that the economic dimensions of competition gains importance relative to the ethnonational dimensions (for instance, see Zuber 2013), and that increases in economic inequality can make the ethnic dimension more salient (Esteban and Ray 2008), leading to greater electoral market segmentation (Vogt 2017), and greater motivation to support candidates that take more extreme positions (Zuber and Szöcsik 2015).…”

“…A list of parties used in the analysis is available in the Appendix 4. Data comes from Stewart and McGauvran (2019) 5. For more information on the EPAC dataset see Zuber and Szöcsik (2015) and Zuber and Szö csik (2015).…”

“…Recent research has shown that economic inequality strengthens ethnic identities (Higashijima and Houle, 2018), increases ethnic political cooperation (Stewart and McGauvran 2019), and support for ethnic parties (Houle et al, 2019). Further, ethnic parties often focus on economic issues, as the motivation behind ethnic parties stems from providing a tangible benefit to a specific group of people (Fearon, 1999), and ethnic party members often vote based on the assumption that ethnic parties will deliver benefits to group members (Birnir, 2006; Chandra, 2007; Ferree, 2011).…”