Strong Linkage Between Precipitation Intensity and Monsoon Season Groundwater Recharge in India

Asoka, Akarsh; Wada, Yoshihide; Fishman, Ram; Mishra, Vimal

doi:10.1029/2018gl078466

Cited by 86 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…This is mainly because of the rise in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity under the warming climate, which is also shown by our results based on the projections from CMIP5-GCMs. Moreover, precipitation characteristics (Asoka et al, 2018) associated with the number of rainy days and distribution of precipitation during the monsoon season may change in the future, which can result in the changes in initial hydrologic conditions. The projections of flooding are uncertain due to the combined effect of changing IHCs and extreme precipitation in the future climate (Kundzewicz et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Extreme Precipitation and Initial Hydrologic Conditions on Floods in Godavari River Basin, India

Garg

Mishra

2019

Water Resources Research

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Floods are the most frequent natural calamity in India. The Godavari river basin (GRB) witnessed several floods in the past 50 years. Notwithstanding the large damage and economic loss, the role of extreme precipitation and antecedent moisture conditions on floods in the GRB remains unexplored. Using the observations and the well‐calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model, we estimate the changes in the extreme precipitation and floods in the observed (1955–2016) and projected future (2071–2100) climate in the GRB. We evaluate the role of initial hydrologic conditions and extreme precipitation on floods in both observed and projected future climate. We find a statistically significant increase in annual maximum precipitation for the catchments upstream of four gage stations during the 1955–2016 period. However, the rise in annual maximum streamflow at all the four gage stations in GRB was not statistically significant. The probability of floods driven by extreme precipitation (PFEP) varies between 0.55 and 0.7 at the four gage stations of the GRB, which declines with the size of the basins. More than 80% of extreme precipitation events that cause floods occur on wet antecedent moisture conditions at all the four locations in the GRB. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is projected to rise by two folds or more (under RCP 8.5) in the future (2071–2100) at all four locations. However, the increased frequency of floods under the future climate will largely be driven by the substantial rise in the extreme precipitation events rather than wet antecedent moisture conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Extreme Precipitation and Initial Hydrologic Conditions on Floods in Godavari River Basin, India

Garg

Mishra

2019

Water Resources Research

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“…It is noteworthy that trends can vary in direction and magnitude across different quantiles (Figure ) due to the changing mean and variability of rainfall (C. K. B. Krishnamurthy et al, ; Sabeerali et al, ; D. Singh, Tsiang, et al, ). All regions except peninsular India have experienced a significant declining trend in low rainfall events (<30th percentile; Malik, Bookhagen, & Mucha, ), which, particularly in the northwest and northcentral regions, has adversely affected groundwater recharge (Asoka et al, ). In addition, wetter regions including central India have experienced an increase in dry spell (<2.5 mm/day) duration while drier regions of the north and northwest have experienced a decrease in dry spell duration (Sushama et al, ; Vinnarasi & Dhanya, ).…”

Section: Observations Changes In Precipitation Processes and Their Atmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies have also highlighted the substantial impacts that subseasonal precipitation variability has on crop yields (Auffhammer, Ramanathan, & Vincent, ; Fishman, ; Gadgil & Kumar, ; Prasanna, ; Preethi & Revadekar, ; Revadekar & Preethi, ; A. Singh, Ghosh, & Mohanty, ). Further, the intensity of rainfall is closely linked to the recharge of groundwater resources (Asoka, Wada, Fishman, & Mishra, ). Therefore, changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal rains can have particularly severe impacts on the region's agriculture, surface water and ground water resources (Asoka, Gleeson, Wada, & Mishra, ; Barnett, Adam, & Lettenmaier, ; Gadgil & Gadgil, ; Russo & Lall, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indian summer monsoon: Extreme events, historical changes, and role of anthropogenic forcings

Singh

Ghosh

Roxy

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

147

111

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The South Asian summer monsoon is a complex coupled human-natural system that poses unique challenges for understanding its evolution alongside increasing anthropogenic activities. Rapid and substantial changes in land-use, landmanagement and industrial activities over the subcontinent, and warming in the Indian Ocean, have influenced the South Asian summer monsoon. These might continue to be significant drivers in the near-term along with rising global greenhouse gas emissions. Deciphering the region's vulnerability to climate change requires an understanding of how these anthropogenic activities, acting on a range of spatial scales, have shaped the monsoon spatially and temporally. This review summarizes historical changes in monsoon rainfall characteristics, associated mechanisms, and the role of anthropogenic forcings, focusing on subseasonal variability and extreme events. Several studies have found intensified subseasonal extremes across parts of India and an increase in spatial variability of rainfall despite an overall weakening of seasonal rainfall in the monsoon core. However, understanding these changes remains challenging because of uncertainties in observations and climate models. The mechanisms and relative influences of various anthropogenic activities, particularly on subseasonal extremes, remain relatively underexplored. Large biases in the representation of relevant processes in global climate models limit the ability to attribute historical changes and make reliable projections. Nevertheless, recent advances in modeling these processes using higher-resolution modeling frameworks provide new tools to investigate the Indian summer monsoon's response to various anthropogenic forcings. There is an urgent need to understand how these forcings interact to shape climate variability and change in this vulnerable region. This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavioranthropogenic forcings, climate change attribution, extreme events, South Asian monsoon, subseasonal variability | INTRODUCTIONSouth Asia is one of the world's most densely populated regions, with a large fraction of people dependent on monsoonrelated activities for their livelihood. The summer monsoon season is the prime agricultural season for most of South Asia and the yields of the major cereal crops are highly sensitive to seasonal temperature and precipitation variability (DeFries et al., 2016). Recent studies have also highlighted the substantial impacts that subseasonal precipitation variability has on crop yields

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“…As the VIC-SIMGM does not account for the groundwater pumping, we replaced the VIC-SIMGM based SGI with the GRACE derived standardized Groundwater Storage Anomaly (GWSA), which was estimated after removing surface water (sum of soil moisture, canopy water, and snow water equivalent obtained from the VIC-SIMGM model) from the GRACE derived TWSA. More information on the estimation of groundwater anomalies from the GRACE data can be found in Asoka et al (2017Asoka et al ( , 2018. We used 12-month SPI, 1-month SSI, 4-month SRI, and 1-month GRACE based GWSA to develop IDI.…”

Section: Estimation Of Idi and Characterization Of Droughts Based On Idimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rapid groundwater depletion is one of the most profound challenges in India (Asoka et al, 2017;Rodell et al, 2009;Tiwari et al, 2009). A rapid decline in groundwater in India (Rodell et al, 2009;Tiwari et al, 2009) can be linked to the decrease in the summer monsoon season precipitation and anthropogenic groundwater pumping for irrigation (Asoka et al, 2017(Asoka et al, , 2018. Since the VIC-SIMGM does not account for the groundwater depletion due to anthropogenic pumping, we evaluated the IDI based on the VIC-SIMGM against the GRACE based IDI that incorporates impacts of groundwater pumping.…”

Section: 1029/2020jd032871mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Onset and Termination in India

Shah

Mishra

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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Despite the implications of meteorological drought propagation to agricultural, hydrological, and groundwater droughts, the focus of previous studies has been primarily on meteorological droughts in India. We use the well‐calibrated and evaluated Variable Infiltration Capacity‐ Simple Groundwater Model (VIC‐SIMGM) to simulate soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater storage variability in India for the 1951–2016 period. The Integrated Drought Index (IDI) that combines meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and groundwater droughts was developed for the 1951–2016 period for India. Using a spatial clustering algorithm based on the traditional interpoint distance metric, eight homogeneous clusters based on IDI were identified. The majority of clusters in India experience the onset and termination of droughts during the summer monsoon season (June–September). The analysis of moisture back trajectories using the Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model showed that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are the two major moisture sources for the identified clusters in India. We performed the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) using monthly IDI and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to evaluate the influence of long‐term climate variability on droughts in India. Droughts based on 1‐month IDI that affect a majority of drought clusters are associated with the positive phase of El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). On the other hand, drought clusters in the Gangetic Plain and peninsular India are affected by the SST warming over the Indian Ocean. Overall, drought clusters based on IDI, their moisture source, and large‐scale teleconnection can assist in drought management and assessment in India.

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Strong Linkage Between Precipitation Intensity and Monsoon Season Groundwater Recharge in India

Cited by 86 publications

References 34 publications

Role of Extreme Precipitation and Initial Hydrologic Conditions on Floods in Godavari River Basin, India

Role of Extreme Precipitation and Initial Hydrologic Conditions on Floods in Godavari River Basin, India

Indian summer monsoon: Extreme events, historical changes, and role of anthropogenic forcings

Drought Onset and Termination in India

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