Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

Bintanja, Richard; Wiel, Karin van der; Linden, Eveline van der; Reusen, Jesse; Bogerd, Linda; Krikken, Folmer; Selten, Frank

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax6869

Cited by 102 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Using one model has the advantage of being able to focus in detail on process understanding but prohibits a discussion on uncertainties associated with model specifics (e.g., the resolution of EC‐Earth is coarse relative to regional Arctic models, and cloud processes such as cloud water/ice composition and vertical transport of water vapor linked to inversion strength are relatively uncertain). A recent multimodel (CMIP5) study generally supports our results, that is, the increasing importance of evaporation for mean precipitation and the importance of the PMT in explaining projected increases in Arctic interannual precipitation variability toward warmer climates (Bintanja et al, 2020). We evaluated the simulated variability in Arctic precipitation for the current climate with reanalyses data and found largely good agreement.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The EC‐Earth model is generally able to simulate Arctic precipitation rates fairly accurately, despite the systematic underestimation in summer (Figure 1f), especially compared to CSFR and MERRA‐2. However, it should be mentioned that the CFSR and MERRA‐2 generally produce relatively high Arctic precipitation rates compared to other reanalyses (e.g., Bintanja et al, 2020). In winter, two main regions can be distinguished where the model deviates from reanalyses: (i) The precipitation to the east of Svalbard is overestimated, and (ii) the precipitation to the east of Greenland is underestimated.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

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Climate State Dependence of Arctic Precipitation Variability

2020

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Arctic precipitation is projected to increase more rapidly than the global mean in warming climates. However, warming-induced changes in the variability of Arctic precipitation, which are related to surface evaporation and poleward moisture transport (PMT), are currently largely unknown. This study compares the precipitation variability in different quasi-equilibrium climates simulated by a global climate model (EC-Earth) and studies the underlying mechanisms. Five quasi-equilibrium simulations of 400 years length forced with a broad range of CO 2 concentrations (0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 times the current global mean) were analyzed. PMT is the dominant source of Arctic precipitation variability in colder climates when the ocean in the Arctic basin is completely covered by sea ice year-round. Arctic precipitation variability increases from colder to warmer climates, primarily in summer. In summer, the increasingly stronger relation between Arctic sea level pressure variability and precipitation variability toward warmer climates enhances variability. In winter, the severe increase in mean precipitation (due to enhanced evaporation) exerts a comparatively small increase in variability, and precipitation variability is modulated by both PMT and evaporation, which oppose each other as they both affect the vertical and meridional moisture gradients.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Climate State Dependence of Arctic Precipitation Variability

2020

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“…Arctic regions are warming two times faster than lower latitudes (Serreze and Barry, 2011;Osborne et al, 2018). Subsequent increases in the quantity (Bintanja and Selten, 2014) and variability (Bintanja et al, 2020) of precipitation, melting glaciers, and thawing permafrost are expected to lead to increased terrestrial runoff (Shiklomanov and Shiklomanov, 2003;Milner et al, 2017) alongside changes in geochemistry of the runoff (Holmes et al, 2012). Coastal environments are prominent habitats on a pan-Arctic scale with a high degree of connectivity between land and sea (McClelland et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial Inputs Shape Coastal Bacterial and Archaeal Communities in a High Arctic Fjord (Isfjorden, Svalbard)

et al. 2021

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The Arctic is experiencing dramatic changes including increases in precipitation, glacial melt, and permafrost thaw, resulting in increasing freshwater runoff to coastal waters. During the melt season, terrestrial runoff delivers carbon- and nutrient-rich freshwater to Arctic coastal waters, with unknown consequences for the microbial communities that play a key role in determining the cycling and fate of terrestrial matter at the land-ocean interface. To determine the impacts of runoff on coastal microbial (bacteria and archaea) communities, we investigated changes in pelagic microbial community structure between the early (June) and late (August) melt season in 2018 in the Isfjorden system (Svalbard). Amplicon sequences of the 16S rRNA gene were generated from water column, river and sediment samples collected in Isfjorden along fjord transects from shallow river estuaries and glacier fronts to the outer fjord. Community shifts were investigated in relation to environmental gradients, and compared to river and marine sediment microbial communities. We identified strong temporal and spatial reorganizations in the structure and composition of microbial communities during the summer months in relation to environmental conditions. Microbial diversity patterns highlighted a reorganization from rich communities in June toward more even and less rich communities in August. In June, waters enriched in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) provided a niche for copiotrophic taxa including Sulfitobacter and Octadecabacter. In August, lower DOC concentrations and Atlantic water inflow coincided with a shift toward more cosmopolitan taxa usually associated with summer stratified periods (e.g., SAR11 Clade Ia), and prevalent oligotrophic marine clades (OM60, SAR92). Higher riverine inputs of dissolved inorganic nutrients and suspended particulate matter also contributed to spatial reorganizations of communities in August. Sentinel taxa of this late summer fjord environment included taxa from the class Verrucomicrobiae (Roseibacillus, Luteolibacter), potentially indicative of a higher fraction of particle-attached bacteria. This study highlights the ecological relevance of terrestrial runoff for Arctic coastal microbial communities and how its impacts on biogeochemical conditions may make these communities susceptible to climate change.

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“…Finally, if our view is correct that the current Arctic Alaskan winter weather system is climatologically convergent with the landscape controlling drift formation, it suggests an important follow-on question: "How much would the climate system need to change before the drifts of the Arctic begin to change and drift fidelity begins to fall off?" The Arctic is warming rapidly (Cohen et al, 2014;Huang et al, 2017;Johannessen et al, 2004;Räisänen, 2008), with large changes in winter precipitation predicted (Bintanja et al, 2020;Bintanja & Selten, 2014), though these have yet to be documented widely through measurements. While more winter snow should in principle produce larger drifts, several predictions (Bieniek et al, 2016;Bintanja & Andry, 2017) suggest that the increase in winter precipitation could come in the form of rainon-snow (ROS).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Snowdrift Landscape Patterns: An Arctic Investigation

Parr

Sturm

Larsen

2020

Water Resources Research

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Between 2012 and 2018 we mapped near-peak seasonal snow depths across two swaths covering 126 km 2 in Northern Alaska using aerial structure-from-motion photogrammetry and lidar surveys. The surveys were validated by over a hundred thousand ground-based depth measurements. Using a quantitative method for identifying drift areas, we conducted a snowdrift census that showed on average 18% of the study area is covered by snowdrifts each winter, with 40% of the snow-water-equivalent contained in the drifts. Within the census we identified six types of drifts, some of which fill each winter, others which do not. The seasonal drift evolution was distinctly different in the two swaths, a result largely explained by topographic differences. Using four metrics from the field of image quality analysis, we tested the year-to-year fidelity of these drift patterns, finding overall high year-to-year similarity, but with higher similarity values for filling drifts, and higher similarity values in one swath versus the other, again a function of the topography. These high drift fidelity values are best explained by climatically convergent winter-cumulative windblown snow fluxes interacting with drift traps to produce the same drifts year after year. However, due to the existence of filling versus nonfilling drifts, and a predicted increasing frequency of rain-on-snow events in the Arctic, future snowdrift patterns and drift evolution pathways in the Arctic could diverge from those of today, with direct hydrologic impacts.

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Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

Cited by 102 publications

References 33 publications

Climate State Dependence of Arctic Precipitation Variability

Climate State Dependence of Arctic Precipitation Variability

Terrestrial Inputs Shape Coastal Bacterial and Archaeal Communities in a High Arctic Fjord (Isfjorden, Svalbard)

Snowdrift Landscape Patterns: An Arctic Investigation

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