Strong correlational but no causal evidence on the link between the perception of scientific consensus and support for vaccination

Abstract

We examine the relationships between the perception of the scientific consensus regarding COVID-19 vaccines, and vaccine attitudes and intentions. Based on the correlational evidence found (Study 1, N=699), perceived scientific consensus and vaccine attitudes are closely related. This association is stronger among people who trust (vs. distrust) scientists; however, political ideology does not moderate these effects. The experimental evidence (Study 2: Nwave1=612, Nwave2=487; Study 3: N=1,051) indicates that consensus messaging influences the perception of consensus; nonetheless, the effects on vaccine attitudes or intentions were non-significant. Consensus messaging and messaging information aiming at reducing psychological reactance were both similarly ineffective in changing attitudes. This disconnect between changes in perceived consensus and vaccine perceptions is unlikely to be due to psychological reactance or study design decisions. The current research contributes to a discussion on the effectiveness of communicating norms with the purpose of changing public attitudes and behaviors in a crisis.