Strong correlational but no causal evidence on the link between the perception of scientific consensus and support for vaccination

Abstract

We examine the relationships between the perception of the scientific consensus regarding vaccines, and vaccine attitudes and intentions (N total = 2,362) in the context of COVID-19 disease. Based on the correlational evidence found (Study 1), perceived scientific consensus and vaccine attitudes are closely related. This association was stronger among people who trust (vs. distrust) scientists; however, political ideology did not moderate these effects. The experimental evidence (Studies 2–3) indicates that consensus messaging influences the perception of consensus; nonetheless, the effects on vaccine attitudes or intentions were non-significant. Furthermore, message aiming at reducing psychological reactance was similarly ineffective in changing attitudes as traditional consensus message.