Background
Ischemic stroke is featured with high incidence, mortality and disability. The aim of this study is to use Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to describe and compare the burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province, and to further predict the expected changes in the next 11 years using statistical modeling methods.
Methods
Information on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality in China (mainland and Taiwan province) during 1990-2019 was obtained from the GBD database to analyze the trends of regional, gender and age on the incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of ischemic stroke in males and females in mainland China and Taiwan province in the next 11 years.
Results
: The period from 1990 to 2019 witnessed an overall upward trend in the number of incidence and deaths in mainland China and Taiwan province. In 2019, there were nearly 2.87 million ischemic incidence cases with stroke in mainland China, with more female patients than male in the age group of over 60 years old. Among the nearly 1.03 million deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 85 was higher than women. While in Taiwan province, the number of incidence was 28,771, with more female patients of all ages than male. Among the 6,788 deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 80 was higher than women. In 2019, the age group with the highest number of patients in the two regions was 65-69 years old, while the highest number of deaths was found in people aged 85 and above. As our ARIMA model predicted, the ASIR value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 163.23/100,000 persons in mainland China by 2030, which would continue to increase, while ASMR value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 16.41/100,000 persons in Taiwan province by 2030, which showed a decreasing trend.
Conclusion
Disease burden of ischemic stroke is still increasing in mainland China and Taiwan province, and health resources should be deployed to implement effective prevention and control strategies, taking into account region, gender, and age.