Strengthening coastal adaptation planning through scenario analysis: A beneficial but incomplete solution

Gray, Stefan; O’Mahony, Cathal; Hills, Jeremy M.; O’Dwyer, Barry; Devoy, R. J. N.; Gault, Jeremy

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2016.04.031

Cited by 19 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This study used a five-step methodology from previously published scenario analyses by Blyth [24] and Gray [27].…”

Section: Applying the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Detailed scenarios were developed based on these four quadrants, which have varying levels of donor dependence and quality of investment and market. Following the method of Blyth [24] and Gray [27], four descriptive scenarios were developed, each reflecting a different combination of donor dependence and investment environment (see Figure 3). The scenario methodology forces a focus on particular significant but uncertain barriers, for which developing strategies and flexible planning would be an imperative, and also helps to remove the bias of experts through its sequential treatment of pooled interview data.…”

Section: Step 5: Developing the Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Thinking Outside the Box: Deepening Private Sector Investments in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions through Scenario Analysis

2019

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Private finance is seen as the financing panacea for resourcing the nationally determined contributions (NDC) submitted by 170 countries to the United Nations (UN) system. Mobilizing private investment is challenging, especially for vulnerable Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Fifteen PICs have already submitted ambitious NDC targets, in which transition towards a sustainable energy environment through investment in renewable energy (RE) is central. Presently, RE investments in PICs are primarily external donor financed, however, reliance on limited and uncertain external finance is unlikely to deliver the required energy transition. A future scenario methodology was used, with Fiji as a case-study; the analysis provided insight into alternative trajectories towards transition. Based on the scenario analysis, an NDC resource mobilization framework was developed. Conclusions suggest that donors should re-orientate their priorities from investments in RE installations, towards investments that upgrade the current RE readiness levels and promote a long-term perspective of “organically growing” the local private RE sector. Channeling resources to target initiatives that will endogenously grow the domestic private sector is critical for PICs, as well as other developing countries, which represent a majority of the NDCs, and which are projected to dominate global growth in energy demand for decades to come.

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“…This study used a five-step methodology from previously published scenario analyses by Blyth [24] and Gray [27].…”

Section: Applying the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Step 5: Developing the Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thinking Outside the Box: Deepening Private Sector Investments in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions through Scenario Analysis

2019

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“…The systematic evaluation of the strategies presented in this paper highlights different styles of implementation across the sites and the significance of institutional maturity and the length of period of collaborative working in determining progress in adaptation planning. Gray et al [19] explore the strengths of scenario analysis further. Whilst demonstrating the potential of scenarios to overcome some of the key barriers within the adaptation process [19], this paper highlights some of the key issues associated with the longer-term horizons associated with these approaches, as weak longterm institutional drivers compete against the immediate priorities and significant other pressures of managers and planners.…”

Section: Contributions To This Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gray et al [19] explore the strengths of scenario analysis further. Whilst demonstrating the potential of scenarios to overcome some of the key barriers within the adaptation process [19], this paper highlights some of the key issues associated with the longer-term horizons associated with these approaches, as weak longterm institutional drivers compete against the immediate priorities and significant other pressures of managers and planners.…”

Section: Contributions To This Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

Editorial: Reflections on coastal climate change adaptation in North West Europe

Ballinger

Gault

2020

Marine Policy

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This special issue focuses on climate change adaptation in coastal areas in North West Europe. Building on the experiences of the INTERREG IVB NWE Innovative Management For Europe's Changing Coastal Resource project (IMCORE), the issue explores adaptation in relation to a range of spatial and temporal scales and drivers. The case studies presented highlight the importance of multi-discipline as well as transnational working as well as recognizing the value of collaborative working between researchers and practitioners.

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“…While there is considerable weight of theory to support more sustainable approaches to natural resource management, global assessments of practical progress to more sustainable development are depressingly consistent (e.g., IPBES 2019) and international policies for food production, which dominate the modern globe and generally fail to incorporate consideration of the multiple ecosystem services provided by nature, resulting in the gradual erosion of environmental quality (O'Higgins 2017; Rouillard et al 2018). Based on our experiences of working with adaptation to climate change (Gray et al 2013(Gray et al , 2016DCCAE 2018aDCCAE , 2018b and application of ecosystem service concepts (O'Higgins et al 2010;Jordan et al 2012;O'Higgins and Gilbert 2014), the motivation behind this paper is to illustrate the simplicity and broad applicability of ecosystem service and adaptive management concepts (each component of ecosystem-based management) and to provide an integrated practical framework for future application.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A vulnerability framework to protect coastal social ecological systems

O’Higgins

O’Dwyer

2019

Anthropocene Coasts

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Due to a long and beneficial legacy, human settlement and development is particularly concentrated in coastal zones and this concentration is expected to continue and increase in the future. Coastal dwelling, however, also entails risks from both anthropogenic and natural hazards and interactions between these. A spatially explicit ecosystem services framework combined with a vulnerability framework is used to explore human relations with the coast and to assess current and future capacities to ensure benefits of coastal migration and to address the risks that these areas pose. The spatial characteristics of some fundamental benefits — transport and settlement, fisheries and waste assimilation — of coastal dwelling and their associated environmental costs are first analysed using modern and historical examples. A variety of spatial characteristics describing human use patterns are then identified. On this basis, the implications of the variety of spatial scales in benefits and costs for effective governance are discussed with reference to historical and current marine and coastal management practice. Our analysis will attempt to demonstrate that incorporating ecosystem services in environmental management may provide a useful tool in the application of ecosystem-based management.

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Strengthening coastal adaptation planning through scenario analysis: A beneficial but incomplete solution

Cited by 19 publications

References 24 publications

Thinking Outside the Box: Deepening Private Sector Investments in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions through Scenario Analysis

Thinking Outside the Box: Deepening Private Sector Investments in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions through Scenario Analysis

Editorial: Reflections on coastal climate change adaptation in North West Europe

A vulnerability framework to protect coastal social ecological systems

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