Strengthening atmospheric circulation and trade winds slowed tropical Pacific surface warming

Latif, Mojib; Bayr, Tobias; Kjellsson, Joakim; Lübbecke, Joke F.; Martin, Thomas; Nnamchi, Hyacinth C.; Park, Wonsun; Savita, Abhishek; Sun, Jing; Dommenget, Dietmar

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00912-4

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 70 publications

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“…Further isolated might be related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was mostly in a negative phase during our observation period which manifests in a large-scale cooling in the tropical Pacific (Latif et al, 2023).…”

Section: Mixed Layer Variationsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Recent large-scale mixed layer and vertical stratification maxima changes

Roch,

Brandt,

Schmidtko

2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The warming climate is causing a strengthening of ocean stratification. Ocean stratification, in turn, has significant impacts on physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes, such as ocean circulation, ventilation, air-sea interactions, nutrient fluxes, primary productivity and fisheries. How these processes are affected in detail by changing stratification still remains uncertain and are likely to vary locally. Here, we investigate the state and trend of different parameters characterizing the stratification of the global upper-ocean which can be derived from Argo profiles for the period 2006-2021. Among those parameters are mixed layer depth, magnitude and depth of the vertical stratification maximum. The summertime stratification maximum has increased in both hemispheres, respectively. During wintertime, the stratification maximum has intensified in the Northern Hemisphere, while changes in the Southern Hemisphere have been relatively small. Comparisons to mixed layer characteristics show that a strengthening stratification is mainly accompanied by a warming and freshening of the mixed layer. In agreement with previous observational studies, we find a large-scale mixed layer deepening that regionally contributes to the increasing stratification. Globally, the vertical stratification maximum strengthens by 7-8% and the mixed layer deepens by 4 m during 2006-2021. This hints to an ongoing de-coupling of the surface ocean from the ocean interior. The investigated changes can help determine the origin of existing model-observation discrepancies and improve predictions on climate change impact on upper-ocean ecology and biogeochemistry.

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Section: Mixed Layer Variationsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Recent large-scale mixed layer and vertical stratification maxima changes

Roch,

Brandt,

Schmidtko

2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Future changes of global Annual and Seasonal Wind-Energy Production in CMIP6 projections considering air density variation

Esnaola,

Ulazia,

Sáenz

et al. 2024

Energy

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Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity

Chung,

Kim,

Lee

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern during the satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in the northwest/southwest Pacific but cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific, is driven by either external forcing or internal variability. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis of observations and a series of climate model simulations for the historical period, we show that a combination of internal variability and human activity may have shaped the observed La Niña-like SST trend pattern. As in observations, SSTs in each model ensemble member show a distinct multi-decadal swing between El Niño-like and La Niña-like trend patterns due to internal variability. The ensemble-mean trends for some models are, however, found to exhibit an enhanced zonal SST gradient along the equatorial Pacific over periods such as 1979–2010, suggesting a role of external forcing. In line with this hypothesis, single-forcing large ensemble model simulations show that human-induced stratospheric ozone depletion and/or aerosol changes have acted to enhance the zonal SST gradient via strengthening of Pacific trade winds, although the effect is model dependent. Our finding suggests that the La Niña-like SST trend is unlikely to persist under sustained global warming because both the ozone and aerosol impacts will eventually weaken.

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Strengthening atmospheric circulation and trade winds slowed tropical Pacific surface warming

Cited by 5 publications

References 70 publications

Recent large-scale mixed layer and vertical stratification maxima changes

Recent large-scale mixed layer and vertical stratification maxima changes

Future changes of global Annual and Seasonal Wind-Energy Production in CMIP6 projections considering air density variation

Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity

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