Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

Stroeve, Sybert H.; Som, Pradip; Doorn, Bas A. van; Bakker, G.J.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2015.11.003

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…As previous works demonstrated the utility of using simulation and Monte Carlo methods to model runway incursions (Stroeve et al, 2016;Wilke et al, 2015), the present research used a Monte Carlo analysis to simulate LAHSOs at the maximum possible arrival rate at CLT. The simulation used traffic data from December 2018, which included the fleet type and airline for all arriving aircraft.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous researchers have modeled runway incursions (Mathew et al, 2017;Stroeve et al, 2016;Wilke et al, 2015), including some who have used Monte Carlo modeling (Stroeve et al, 2016); however, none have focused on LAHSO. Instead, much of the research has focused on either severity or causal factors.…”

Section: Use Of Modeling To Study Runway Incursionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In their research of runway collision risks, Stroeve et al (2016) used dynamic risk modeling and Monte Carlo simulation to review air traffic scenarios, which included aircraft landing and taxiing. The modeling processes enabled Stroeve et al (2016) to account for the many entities involved in runway incursion scenarios, including aircraft performance, situational awareness, and environmental factors at the airport, and to determine collision probability from the simulations.…”

Section: Use Of Modeling To Study Runway Incursionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Land and Hold Short Operations: Balancing Safety and Arrival Rate

Ward¹,

Owen-Perry²

2020

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

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Many airports conduct simultaneous operations on intersecting runways to increase the rate of takeoffs and landings. This requires landing aircraft to hold short of the intersecting runway, which incurs a safety risk of runway incursions in the process. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to analyze the traffic load at maximum operational capacity at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport in order to analyze the fleet types and the rate of those landing aircraft unable to stop short of the intersecting runway. The researchers used the actual and four alternative compositions of the subject airline's aircraft arrivals, interspersed among other airport traffic, to assess how such changes affect the rate of runway incursions, the rate of operations at the airport, and the mean number of passengers the subject airline can land per hour. The simulation revealed that runway length up to the hold short point was the biggest determinant of aircraft being unable to hold short. The total airport rate of operations decreased when heavy wake turbulence category aircraft were introduced. Despite heavy wake turbulence category aircraft carrying more passengers individually, the decreased operations rate also led to fewer passengers per hour that the subject airline could carry.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Use Of Modeling To Study Runway Incursionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Use Of Modeling To Study Runway Incursionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Land and Hold Short Operations: Balancing Safety and Arrival Rate

Ward¹,

Owen-Perry²

2020

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

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“…Rios Insua et al show a framework for risk management decisions in aviation safety at the state level with a novel and systematic methodology for risk management based on the principles of decision and risk analysis [21]. A procedure of strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions is described by Stroeve et al in [23]. Also, a quantitative model for assessing aviation safety risk factors as a means of increasing the effectiveness of a safety risk management system by integrating the fuzzy linguistic scale method, failure mode, effects and criticality analysis principle was shown by Wen-Kuei Lee [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Management in (Air) Transport With Exemplary Risk Analysis Based on the Tolerability Matrix

Dudek¹,

Krzykowska-Piotrowska²,

Siergiejczyk³

2020

Transport Problems

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This article is a continuation of the authors' study on the ways to ensure safety in the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system. It directly refers to the processes of risk management involving, in particular, risk management in (air) transport. The main aim of this paper is to present and indicate the hazard identification and risk assessment tools that can be used in air transport and to apply one of them for a risk analysis of a specific ATM originating case. This is why, after a short introduction, describing the background of the research as well as literature review, the risk management process as such is characterized. It is shown in a schematic way and its main components are identified. At the same time, from the entire management process, the risk assessment procedure is highlighted as its most crucial part. Then, general hazards identification techniques, risk analysis and assessment tools are described, with an indication that they can also be implemented in air transport, if compatible with ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs). In the following part, the process of risk assessment in air transport, based on the Safety Management Manual, using a safety risk tolerability matrix, is characterized. Finally, in this article, an exemplary risk analysis is carried out, focusing on a selected case arising from the ATM field. For the analysed case, safety risk hazards and their possible effects are identified and then assigned to the Intolerable, Tolerable and Acceptable regions. The entire paper is summarized and conclusions are drawn in relation to the publication's main goal. Attention is also paid to the potential causes of appearance of hazards including, first of all, lack of adequate verification procedures, as well as people's competence and last but not the least human errors, being the reason for 70-80% of unwanted transport accidents.

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“…Among the errors, 54% occurred in the taxiing phase [4], [5] and accidents may also happen during the taxiing phase [6], [7]. For example, runway incursion is the leading cause of major accidents that occurred at the Linate Airport in 2001 (118 casualties), Omsk in 1984 (178 casualties), and Tenerifein in 1977 (583 casualties) [8]. The taxiing phase is a complex multitask process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pilots’ Scanning Behavior Between Different Airport Intersection Maneuvers in a Simulated Taxiing Task

Zhang

Xue

et al. 2019

IEEE Access

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Among flight crew errors, 54% occurred in the taxiing phase, especially near intersections in low visibility situations. This paper examines pilots' scanning behavior when executing different turning maneuvers at airport intersections both on clear days and in low visibility situations. The Beijing International Airport was reconstructed in an Airbus 320 simulator. Eight male pilots participated in this study. The pilots were required to take full manual control from the last approach point and to taxi according to the predetermined flight plan. The pilots' fixation rate, average fixation duration, and dwell time percentage in each area of interest (AOI) were analyzed during the turning maneuvers near four examined intersections. The results showed that the dwell time percentages in the electronic centralized aircraft monitoring (ECAM) area when executing right turn maneuvers were significantly higher than those when executing left turn maneuvers on clear days. In low visibility situations, the percentages of dwell time in the right view out of the window (OTWR) area when executing right turn maneuvers were significantly higher than those when executing left turn maneuvers. To examine if the scanning behavior reported in this study is safe or not, the pilots' responses to potentially dangerous situations should be further studied.

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Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

Cited by 13 publications

References 10 publications

Modeling Land and Hold Short Operations: Balancing Safety and Arrival Rate

Modeling Land and Hold Short Operations: Balancing Safety and Arrival Rate

Risk Management in (Air) Transport With Exemplary Risk Analysis Based on the Tolerability Matrix

Pilots’ Scanning Behavior Between Different Airport Intersection Maneuvers in a Simulated Taxiing Task

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