Streamflow variability in the Chilean Temperate-Mediterranean climate transition (35°S–42°S) during the last 400 years inferred from tree-ring records

Muñoz, Ariel A.; González‐Reyes, Álvaro; Lara, Antonio; Sauchyn, David J.; Christie, Duncan A.; Puchi, Paulina; Urrutia‐Jalabert, Rocío; Toledo-Guerrero, Isadora; Aguilera-Betti, Isabella; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Sheppard, Paul R.; Stahle, D. W.; Villalba, Ricardo; Szejner, Paul; LeQuesne, Carlos; Vanstone, Jessica

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3068-9

Cited by 56 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…5a). This relationship between ENSO and the hydroclimate in the northern subregion is congruent with previous studies relating ENSO with precipitation over central Chile (Escobar and Aceituno 1998;Montecinos and Aceituno 2003;Garreaud et al 2009), with streamflow variability in Chile (Aceituno and Vidal 1990;Aceituno and Garreaud 1995;Muñoz et al 2016) and Argentina (Compagnucci et al 2000), and with snowpack accumulation in the central Andes (Masiokas et al 2006). In particular, the relationship between ENSO in the northern subregion and precipitation could explain the positive trend between 1975 and 2000 reported in several studies (Carrasco et al 2005;Quintana and Aceituno 2012).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Spatiotemporal Variations in Hydroclimate across the Mediterranean Andes (30°–37°S) since the Early Twentieth Century

González‐Reyes

McPhee

Christie

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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In the Mediterranean Andes region (MA; 308-378S), the main rivers are largely fed by melting snowpack and provide freshwater to around 10 million people on both sides of the Andes Mountains. Water resources in the MA are under pressure because of the extensive development of industrial agriculture and mining activities. This pressure is increasing as the region faces one of its worst recorded droughts. Previous studies have pointed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main climatic force impacting the MA. However, the role of decadal and multidecadal climate variability, their spatial patterns, and the recurrence of long-term droughts remains poorly studied. In an attempt to better understand these factors, spatial and temporal patterns of hydroclimatic variability are analyzed using an extensive database of streamflow, precipitation, and snowpack covering the period between 1910 and 2011. These analyses are based on the combination of correlation, principal components, and kernel estimation techniques. Despite a general common pattern across the MA, the results presented here identify two hydroclimatic subregions, located north and south of 348S. While the interannual variability associated with ENSO is slightly stronger north of 348S, the variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and/or the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) index shows similar patterns in both regions. However, variations produced by the IPO forcing seem to be greater in the southern subregion since 1975. The estimations presented here on drought recurrence reveal a generalized increase in dry extremes since the 1950s. These findings suggest that the northern MA is more vulnerable to changes in hydrology and climate than the southern MA.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Spatiotemporal Variations in Hydroclimate across the Mediterranean Andes (30°–37°S) since the Early Twentieth Century

González‐Reyes

McPhee

Christie

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…However, the lack of long-term observational records of hydrometeorological variables makes difficult the development of accurate estimations of natural variability, useful for determining the severity of the recent observed deficit in streamflow (Lara et al, 2008). Therefore, there is a need to extend the observational record to better understand long-term (e.g., centuries to millennia) variability and trends in streamflow, thus providing useful information for hydrological assessment of governmental and private planning initiatives within watersheds of SCC (Lara et al, 2015;Muñoz et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Fernández¹,

Muñoz

González‐Reyes

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ∼ 37-42 • S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼ 37 • 40 S-38 • 50 S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes.We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

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“…Adicionalmente, se le calculó a cada tasa de ocurrencia una banda de confi anza a un P < 0,05 basada en 1000 simulaciones usando bootstrap en orden de representar cambios en la varianza (Cowling et al, 1996). Este método para evaluar eventos extremos ha sido utilizado por diversos autores, por ejemplo, para evaluar inundaciones en ríos de Portugal (Silva et al, 2012), y eventos de paleo-sequías en el Altiplano (Morales et al, 2015) y Chile Centro Sur (Christie et al, 2011;Muñoz et al, 2016). El cálculo de la tasa de ocurrencia de sequías se ha hecho utilizando el paquete estadístico "Paleofi re" (Blarquez et al, 2014), escrito para el software de código abierto R -Project (R Core Team 2016), disponible libremente en Internet.…”

Section: Evaluación De Eventos De Sequíasunclassified

“…Un ejemplo de ello es el registro pluviométrico histórico de la ciudad de Valdivia ubicada en la zona sur de Chile, donde los cambios en la precipitación anual acumulada muestran una reducción signifi cativa desde el año 1853 (González-Reyes y Muñoz, 2013). Adicionalmente, un incremento hacia condiciones secas ha sido también registrado en el río Maule desde el año 1850 y desde el año 1920 en el río Biobío, si se consideran las reconstrucciones paleohidrológicas de ambos ríos en base a anillos de crecimiento de árboles (Muñoz et al, 2016).…”

Section: La Oscilación Decadal Del Pacífi Co Y Su Infl Uencia En La Dunclassified

Ocurrencia de eventos de sequías en la ciudad de Santiago de Chile desde mediados del siglo XIX

González‐Reyes

2016

Rev. geogr. Norte Gd.

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Streamflow variability in the Chilean Temperate-Mediterranean climate transition (35°S–42°S) during the last 400 years inferred from tree-ring records

Cited by 56 publications

References 51 publications

Spatiotemporal Variations in Hydroclimate across the Mediterranean Andes (30°–37°S) since the Early Twentieth Century

Spatiotemporal Variations in Hydroclimate across the Mediterranean Andes (30°–37°S) since the Early Twentieth Century

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Ocurrencia de eventos de sequías en la ciudad de Santiago de Chile desde mediados del siglo XIX

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