Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann−Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods

Gümüş, Veysel; Avşaroğlu, Yavuz; Şimşek, Oğuz

doi:10.1007/s12040-021-01770-4

Cited by 48 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Because a high number of decreasing trends have been detected with ITA in this study, researchers of [21], [26], [42] have found decreasing trends using ITA methodology as well. Even Simsek [31] has found decreasing trends for Mediterranean Basins by Mann-Kendall test.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Analyzing droughts by trend methods such as Mann-Kendall, Sperman's Rho, and Innovative Trend Analysis have taken a great deal of attraction to scientists [19]- [23]. The innovative trend analysis (ITA) method which has been proposed by Şen [24] is a method that has been used in many studies because it is simple and efficient [25], [26]. According to the literature, there have been lots of studies in which SDI is used to analyze hydrologic droughts in Türkiye.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Investigation of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye: Impacts and Trends

DEGER

Yüce

Eşit

2023

Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi

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Drought is a natural disaster that is generally defined as precipitations which are significantly below the precipitation recorded in normal times. Drought has been classified as meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic by many researchers. Hydrological drought takes place when deficiencies in the surface and ground waters occur as a result of the long-term lack of precipitation. In this study, a hydrological drought analysis has been performed for Kızılırmak Basin which is the second biggest basin of Turkey by using streamflow drought index (SDI) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) for the time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12-month. Monthly mean streamflow records of 7 stations are obtained from the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSİ). Drought severity and drought duration which is two important drought characteristics have been calculated for each time scale with their occurrence term. Results have shown that Mild Drought and Wet (SDI≥0) have the highest percentage of occurrences. Using Run Theory, the longest lasted and highest drought has been noted in the SDI-12-time scale of E15A017 station with 149.72 and 103 months as severity and duration, respectively. From the highest severity and longest lasted droughts, it is seen that starting with 2000, the basin is exposed to the highest occurrence of droughts. ITA results have shown that in most of the SDI series of any time scale a trend is existent and these trends are mostly decreasing trends. Therefore, the results of this have shown that the basin needs to be kept from the potential effects of droughts with effective water resources management plan.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Investigation of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye: Impacts and Trends

DEGER

Yüce

Eşit

2023

Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi

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“…Gumus et al (2022) found strong and very strong downward trends for annual mean river flow at 80% of stations in the ETRB. While some studies on ETRB indicate that by the end of the century, snowfall and precipitation (especially in Türkiye, which forms the upstream of the basin) will decrease by 30-40%, it is claimed that this will significantly reduce the surface flow(IPCC 2013;Yilmaz and Imteaz 2011; Bozkurt and Şen 2013;Özdoğan 2011;Şen 2019).…”

mentioning

confidence: 90%

Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates–Tigris River Basin of Türkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches

Büyükyıldız

2022

Appl Water Sci

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The Euphrates–Tigris River Basin (ETRB), one of the largest river basins in the Middle East, is also among the most risky transboundary basins in the world. ETRB has a critical importance for the region both politically and economically due to its location. Evaluating the increasing regional impacts of climate change is even more important for the sustainable management of water and soil resources, especially in transboundary basins such as ETRB. Türkiye is one of the most important riparian countries of the ETRB and the Türkiye part of ETRB constitutes the headwater of the basin. In this study, the temporal variability of the annual total precipitation data for the period 1965–2020 of eighteen stations located in the Türkiye part of the ETRB was investigated. Classical Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to statistically determine the monotonic trend of precipitation. In addition to the MK method, analyses were carried out with three innovative trend methods, which have the ability to interpret trends both statistically and graphically. These innovative trend methods are Şen innovative trend analysis (Şen-ITA), Onyutha trend test (OTT) and trend analysis with combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram (CWTSD). The results obtained show that there is a decreasing trend in annual total precipitation in ETRB according to all trend methods generally used for the examined period. In addition, the results obtained from the relatively new OTT and CWTSD methods show strong consistency with the results of the other two methods. The advantages such as performing numerical and visual trend analysis with innovative OTT and CWTSD methods, identifying trends in low–medium–high value data and detecting sub-trends have shown that these methods can be used as an alternative to the widely used MK and Şen-ITA.

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“…We investigated the existence of a trend in a time series with a null hypothesis (H 0 ) of no trend. The linear slope of the trend was determined using the method suggested by Sen (1968) (Gumus et al, 2022). Mann-Kendall test statistics (S) for time series can be calculated as follows:…”

Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the sediment load in the Red River system (Vietnam) from 1958- 2021 because of dam-reservoirs

Quang

Ngoc²,

Phong

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The sediment regime of the Red River system has changed since dams and reservoirs were implemented, with implications for river processes downstream. We analyzed data for the daily discharge (Q) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations collected from 1958–2021 at the Son Tay hydrological gauging station, the outlet of the Red River system and entry to the delta. The results showed that the annual sediment load transported by the Red River system decreased significantly, by about 90.4%, over the 64-year study period. From 1958 to 1971, when there were no dams or reservoirs in place, the annual water discharges and sediment loads in the river system were about 115,592×106 m3/yr and 115×106 ton/yr, respectively. From 1971 to 2016, a series of dam-reservoir systems were gradually implemented (Thac Ba (1971), Hoa Binh (1988), Tuyen Quang (2008), Son La (2010), Ban Chat (2013), Huoi Quang (2015), and Lai Chau (2016)). By 2016, the annual sediment load and water discharges in the Red River system had decreased significantly, and were 9×106 ton/yr and 88,709×106 m3/yr, respectively. The data show that the discharge and sediment loads increased slightly from 2016–2021, perhaps reflecting the combined effects of human activities, such as land-use change, deforestation, and population increases. Climate may also have played a role in these increases, with changes in air temperature and increases in rainfall triggering severe soil erosion and large discharges of sediment into the Red River system.

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Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann−Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods

Cited by 48 publications

References 38 publications

An Investigation of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye: Impacts and Trends

An Investigation of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye: Impacts and Trends

Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates–Tigris River Basin of Türkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches

Changes in the sediment load in the Red River system (Vietnam) from 1958- 2021 because of dam-reservoirs

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