Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios

Gellens, D.; Roulin, Emmanuel

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(98)00192-9

Cited by 131 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Aerts et al, 2006;Booij, 2005;Bultot et al, 1988Bultot et al, , 1990De Wit et al, 2001Gellens, 1991;Gellens and Roulin, 1998;Giorgi and Coppola, 2007;Kwadijk and Rotmans, 1995;Leander et al, 2008;Middelkoop et al, 2004;Pfister et al, 2000;Tu, 2006;Van den Hurk et al, 2007;Van Deursen and Middelkoop, 2002;Vanneuville and Holvoet, 2009;Van Pelt et al, 2009;Ward et al, 2007Ward et al, , 2008Ward et al, , 2011. Although there are differences in the results, most studies suggest that the frequency of floods will increase in the future due to climate change.…”

Section: Past Studies: Climate Hydrology and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Ward

Moel

Aerts

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

139

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Abstract. Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (C 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33 % and 100 % when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

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Section: Past Studies: Climate Hydrology and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Ward

Moel

Aerts

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

139

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“…Important research efforts have already been devoted to the evaluation of climate change impact on hydrological resources in general (e.g. Westmacott and Burn 1997;Gellens and Roulin 1998;Sun et al 2000;Beeton 2002;Menzel and Bürger 2002). However, as mentioned in a recent IPCC report (IPPC 2001), very little research has focused, until now, on the potential effects of climate change on groundwater resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium

Brouyère

Carabin

Dassargues

2003

Hydrogeology Journal

151

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An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluriannual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.RØsumØ Un modle hydrologique intØgrØ (MOHISE) a ØtØ dØveloppØ afin d'Øtudier l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants reprØsentatifs de Belgique. Ce modle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques d'une manire physiquement consistante, plus particulirement les Øcoule-ments souterrains qui sont modØlisØs par une approche spatialement distribuØe aux ØlØments finis. Grâce à cet outil numØrique prØcis, aprs une calibration et une validation dØtaillØes, des interprØtations quantitatives peuvent Þtre rØalisØes à partir des rØsultats du modle de nappe. ConsidØrant des scØnarios de changements climatiques de l'IPCC, l'approche intØgrØe a ØtØ appliquØe pour Øvaluer l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle de l'eau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modle de nappe est dØcrit en dØtail et les rØsultats sont discutØs en terme d'impact du changement climatique sur l'Øvolution des rØserves souterraines. Les premiers rØsul-tats indiquent que des dØficits d'eau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.Resumen Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climµtico en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en BØlgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterrµneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numØrica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climµtico IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climµtico en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los d...

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“…Booij 2005;Bultot et al 1988Bultot et al , 1990De Wit et al 2001;Gellens and Roulin 1998;Middelkoop et al 2004;Van Deursen and Middelkoop 2001), as a result of higher winter precipitation totals (e.g. Booij 2005;Bultot et al 1988Bultot et al , 1990De Wit et al 2001, 2007bGellens and Roulin 1998;Giorgi and Coppola 2007;Kwadijk and Rotmans 1995;Van den Hurk et al 2006).…”

Section: Comparison With Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future climate change is expected to have major impacts on river discharge (Kundzewicz et al 2007), and hence many modelling studies have been carried out to assess the potential changes in Meuse discharge and flood frequency in the twenty-first century (e.g. Booij 2005;Bultot et al 1988Bultot et al , 1990De Wit et al 2001, 2007bGellens 1991;Gellens and Roulin 1998;Middelkoop et al 2004;Middelkoop 2001, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe)

Ward

Renssen²,

Aerts

et al. 2010

Climatic Change

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We used a calibrated coupled climate-hydrological model to simulate Meuse discharge over the late Holocene (4000-3000 BP and 1000-2000 AD). We then used this model to simulate discharge in the twenty-first century under SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1, with and without future land use change. Mean discharge and medium-sized high-flow (e.g. Q 99 ) frequency are higher in 1000-2000 AD than in 4000-3000 BP; almost all of this increase can be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture. In the twentieth century, mean discharge and the frequency of medium-sized high-flow events are higher than in the nineteenth century; this increase can be attributed to increased (winter half-year) precipitation. Between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, anthropogenic climate change causes a further increase in discharge and medium-sized high-flow frequency; this increase is of a similar order of magnitude to the changes over the last 4,000 years. The magnitude of extreme flood events (return period 1,250-years) is higher in the twenty-first century than in any preceding period of the time-slices studied. In contrast to the long-term influence of deforestation on mean discharge, changes in forest cover have had little effect on these extreme floods, even on the millennial timescale.

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Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios

Cited by 131 publications

References 12 publications

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium

Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe)

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