Streamflow forecasting in Tocantins river basins using machine learning

Abstract

Understanding the behavior of the river regime in watersheds is fundamental for water resources planning and management. Empirical hydrological models are powerful tools for this purpose, with the selection of input variables as one of the main steps of the modeling. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to select the best input variables using the genetic, recursive feature elimination, and vsurf algorithms, and to evaluate the performance of the random forest, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and M5 model tree models in forecasting daily streamflow in Sono (SRB), Manuel Alves da Natividade (MRB), and Palma (PRB) River basins. Based on several performance indexes, the best model in all basins was the M5 model tree, which showed the best performances in SRB and PRB using the variables selected by the recursive feature elimination algorithm. The good performance of the evaluated models allows using them to assist different demands faced by the water resources management in the studied river basins, especially the M5 model tree model using streamflow lags, average rainfall, and evapotranspiration as inputs.

Modelagem de vazões máximas e mínimas com base em aprendizado de máquina

“…Na análise das categorias de covariáveis em todas as técnicas de Aprendizado de Máquina e em cada cenário de antecedência na previsão, observou-se, majoritariamente, que a vazão teve os maiores valores de importância seguida pela precipitação. Esse resultado corrobora com diversos trabalhos que encontraram covariáveis de vazão com maior relevância na previsão da vazão com técnicas de ML, independentemente do algoritmo utilizado na seleção de recursos (DUARTE et al, 2022;LIU et al, 2019;REIS et al, 2021).…”