Summary
A rapid and continuous rise in incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma over the past four decades has been well documented in many developed countries across three continents. Among white males, who are in the highest risk demographic, incidence has risen 10-fold in the U.S. since the early 1970s. Incidence among males in the U.K. are among the highest in the world, and 50% higher than in the U.S. Unfortunately, treatments have not kept pace; unless their cancer is identified at a very early stage, most individuals will not survive a year after diagnosis. The beginnings of this widespread problem were first recognized over 25 years ago, yet rates have continued to rise against a backdrop of much improved understanding and management including the introduction of medical and surgical treatments aimed at reducing acid reflux, one of the most important risk factors; the availability of screening and surveillance programs for the precursor lesion Barrett’s metaplasia; and the development of endoscopic therapies for prevention or treatment of early invasive cancer. We estimate that only about 7% of the 10,000 cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma diagnosed annually in the U.S. are identified through current approaches to cancer control, and trace pathways by which the remaining 93% are “lost.” Based on emerging data on etiology and predictive factors coupled with new diagnostic tools, we suggest a five-tier strategy for prevention and control that begins with a wide population base and triages individuals into progressively higher risk strata, each with risk-appropriate prevention, screening and treatment options.