Strategy and choice in the 1988 presidential primaries

Cain, Bruce E.; Lewis, I. A.; Rivers, Douglas

doi:10.1016/0261-3794(89)90020-6

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Anyone familiar with presidential nominations will surely complain that this decision rule is inadequate. If there is one phenomenon central to understanding presidential nominations it is momentum (Aldrich, 1980;Bartels, 1985Bartels, , 1988; though see Cain et al, 1989 for a different view). As described earlier, the simulations do eliminate unviable candidates, thereby capturing one element of momentum ± as failing candidates quit, their supporters turn to more successful candidates.…”

Section: Vote Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effective Length of the Presidential Primary Season

Cooper

2002

Journal of Theoretical Politics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Scholars interested in the speed with which each of the two major US political parties selects its presidential nominee focus on delegate allocation rules and voter preferences as possible sources of variation, but disagree as to the impact of each. I use computer simulations to explore the effects of these two variables. The simulations show that both proportional allocation and more diverse voter preferences increase the number of primaries that must be completed before a single candidate can amass sufficient delegates to guarantee nomination. These findings are consistent with the predictions of existing literature, but previous research generally presents delegate allocation rules and voter preferences as alternative rather than complementary explanations. The results presented here suggest that they have the potential to be complementary.

show abstract

Section: Vote Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effective Length of the Presidential Primary Season

Cooper

2002

Journal of Theoretical Politics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…21 For a description of how this may have happened for the Democrats in 1988, see Cain, Lewis, and Rivers (1989). Thus for a population whose median lies at zero, a decision rule that selects, for example, candidates at positions 3 and 5 will have a smaller MSE (at 17) than one that selects candidates at positions 2 and 6 (whose MSE is 20).…”

Section: General Election Voters' Preferencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For an important exception, seeCox (1997). Cox limits his explicit analyses to general elections, but offers valuable insights into the choices primary voters face (see especially chapter 6; see alsoBartels 1988;Cain, Lewis, and Rivers 1989;Wattenberg 1991 for discussion of the strategic choices voters face-and make-in presidential primaries). I limit my comparisons to these three alternatives and do not compare the post-reform system to the pre-reform system.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Nominating Presidential Candidates: The Primary Season Compared to Two Alternatives

Cooper¹

2001

Political Research Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There is a single dimension of choice, 7 For an important exception, see Cox (1997). Cox limits his explicit analyses to general elections, but offers valuable insights into the choices primary voters face (see especially chapter 6; see also Bartels 1988; Cain, Lewis, and Rivers 1989;Wattenberg 1991 for discussion of the strategic choices voters face-and make-in presidential primaries). 8 I limit my comparisons to these three alternatives and do not compare the post-reform system to the pre-reform system.…”

Section: Speciqcsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…21 For a description of how this may have happened for the Democrats in 1988, see Cain, Lewis, and Rivers (1989). 22 It is, of course, debatable whether a decision rule that picks some candidates very near the "ideal" position and others veryfar from it should be preferred to one that picks all candidates moderately far from that same ideal.…”

Section: Hypotheses Party Voters' Preferencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonminating Presidential Candidates: The Primary Season Compared to Two Alternatives

Cooper

2001

Political Research Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Study of the impact of the McGovern-Fraser reforms on presidential nominations, though extensive, has focused largely on (1) the effects of reduced control by party leaders, and (2) the nature of inputs including votes, media, and money Despite the unusual practice of holding sepa- rate contests in multiple states to select a single nominee, little research explicitly addresses how such sequential contests function to transmit voters' preferences. I use computer simulations to tackle this seemingly intractable question and compare the results of a primary season to two alternatives, a single national primary and a national primary followed by a runoff. Using first a uniform distribution of voter preferences and then a distribution based on ANES data, I explore the impact different deci- sion rules have on (1) a party's ability to satisfy its own voters' prefer- ences, and (2) its competitiveness in the general election. I find that, on average, the primary season does better both at estimating party voters' preferences and at selecting candidates nearer the general electorate median. A primary followed by a runoff yields results close to those for the primary season, whereas a single primary generates results not dis- similar to those created by random selection. I conclude with a discus- sion of the implications of these findings for the system used to nominate presidential candidates.

show abstract

Strategy and choice in the 1988 presidential primaries

Cited by 5 publications

References 2 publications

The Effective Length of the Presidential Primary Season

The Effective Length of the Presidential Primary Season

Nominating Presidential Candidates: The Primary Season Compared to Two Alternatives

Nonminating Presidential Candidates: The Primary Season Compared to Two Alternatives

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About