Strategies to reduce water stress in Euro-Mediterranean river basins

Garrote, Luís; Granados, Alfredo; Iglesias, Ana

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.106

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“… Simplifications in water management that can be overcome with the use of a more complex and data demanding utility management model (Garrote et al, 2015;Pulido-Velazquez et al, 2011) taking into account simultaneously temporal, spatial heterogeneity of the hydrological components, demands and the location of the infrastructures.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have assessed cross-sectoral climate change impacts at global and continental scale (Arnell et al, 2013;Harrison et al, 2012;Metzger et al, 2005;Piontek et al, 2014;Schewe et al, 2014;Warszawski et al, 2014) but few have done so at local or even regional scale. Other local climate change impact studies (Cleridou et al, 2014;Fabre et al, 2015;Garrote et al, 2015;Vargas-Amelin and Pindado, 2013) are framed on socioeconomic prospective scenarios and management choices without considering water demand in the form of qualitative/narrative scenarios according to the SSPs. After our recent studies on water availability and stress (Koutroulis et al, 2015(Koutroulis et al, , 2013Tsanis et al, 2011) for the island of Crete, Greece, the issue of future water resources availability is revisited under the latest generation of climate scenarios (RCPs) combined with tailored information on the most relevant socio-economic futures according to the SSPs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

Koutroulis

Grillakis

Tsanis

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

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Ensemble pan-European projections under a 2 °C global warming relative to the preindustrial period reveal a more intense warming in south Eastern Europe by up to +3 °C, thus indicating that impacts of climate change will be disproportionately high for certain regions. The Mediterranean is projected as one of the most vulnerable areas to climatic and anthropogenic changes with decreasing rainfall trends and a continuous gradual warming causing a progressive decline of average stream flow. Many Mediterranean regions are currently experiencing high to severe water stress induced by human and climate drivers. Changes in average climate conditions will increase this stress notably because of a 10-30% decline in freshwater resources. For small island states, where accessibility to freshwater resources is limited the impact will be more pronounced. Here we use a generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island. A set of representative regional climate models simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative driven by different RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP8.5 GCMs are used to form a comparable set of results and a useful basis for the assessment of uncertainties related to impacts of 2 degrees warming and above. A generalized framework of a crosssectoral water resources analysis was developed in collaboration with the local water authority exploring and costing adaptation measures associated with a set of socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Transient hydrological modeling was performed to describe the projected hydro-climatological regime and water availability for each warming level. The robust signal of less precipitation and higher temperatures that is projected by climate simulations results to a severe decrease of local water resources which can be mitigated by a number of actions. Awareness of the practical implications of plausible hydro-climatic and socioeconomic scenarios in the not so distant future may be the key to shift perception and preference towards a more sustainable direction.

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Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

Koutroulis

Grillakis

Tsanis

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

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“…Global developments steered by high economic growth across the majority of European countries (Koch et al 2011, Reder et al 2013) result in a strong dominance of international markets with a small degree of regulation and a high level of international cooperation (Garrote et al 2016; Fig. 1).…”

Section: Economic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes

Harrison¹,

Harmáčková²,

Karabulut³

et al. 2019

E&S

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Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature's contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature's contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.

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“…Adapting water rights to climate change, or to increased uncertainty in general, has been the topic of recent legal and water policy research. Water policy adaptation may not occur incrementally (Garrote et al 2016;Kates et al 2012); rather, large transformations may be needed when change to humanenvironmental systems is considerable and resources or populations are vulnerable. Disjointed and piecemeal laws between surface water, groundwater, water quality, and environmental protection may further hinder innovative adaptation (Adler 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on water allocations with season dependent water rights

Null

Prudencio

2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Appropriative water rights allocate surface water to competing users based on seniority. Often water rights vary seasonally with spring runoff, irrigation schedules, or other non-uniform supply and demand. Downscaled monthly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model, multi-emissions scenario hydroclimate data evaluate water allocation reliability and variability with anticipated hydroclimate change. California's Tuolumne watershed is a study basin, chosen because water rights are well-defined, simple, and include competing environmental, agricultural, and urban water uses representative of most basins. We assume that dedicated environmental flows receive first priority when mandated by federal law like the Endangered Species Act or hydropower relicensing, followed by senior agricultural water rights, and finally junior urban water rights. Environmental flows vary by water year and include April pulse flows, and senior agricultural water rights are 68% larger during historical spring runoff from April through June. Results show that senior water right holders receive the largest climate-driven reductions in allocated water when peak streamflow shifts from snowmelt-dominated spring runoff to mixed snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated winter runoff. Junior water right holders have higher uncertainty from inter-annual variability. These findings challenge conventional wisdom that water shortages are absorbed by junior water users and suggest that aquatic ecosystems may be disproportionally impaired by hydroclimate change, even when environmental flows receive priority.

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Strategies to reduce water stress in Euro-Mediterranean river basins

Cited by 32 publications

References 28 publications

Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes

Climate change effects on water allocations with season dependent water rights

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