Strategic war: What are the questions and who should ask them?

Bracken, Paul; Shubik, Martín

doi:10.1016/0160-791x(82)90016-1

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…[202,203]). 20 18 19 See also [5,128,131,148]. 20 The crucial invention of the wheel, credited to the Mesopotamians (old societies located in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as Sumer, Babylonian, and Assyrian Empires), is likely due to similar determinants discussed in the text here: to achieve the leadership of any of these societies by warfare.…”

Section: Period Of War Troopsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…The Korean War and Cold War against the Soviet Union have spurred the development of the computer by IBM as a fully transistorized commercial computer. 19 Now this GPT is generating a huge structural change of socio-economic systems worldwide (cf. [159,190,194]).…”

Section: Period Of War Troopsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the past the wars were mainly performed with battles (pitched battle and/or naval combat). Nowadays, the strategy of warfare is changed due to new technology and based on naval, aircraft, missile, unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) and cyber attacks[19,140,211].Source: * [26]; x[25,134]; x[7];[233]. (1) Britain, after the victories of war, stipulated several Treaties.Fig.…”

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confidence: 99%

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General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development

Coccia

2015

Technology in Society

110

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Section: Period Of War Troopsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Period Of War Troopsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development

Coccia

2015

Technology in Society

110

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“…Cynicism aside, these comments raise fundamental questions neglected only at some peril. Bracken and Shubik (1982) present a detailed list of such questions with respect to national security studies, analyses, and models.…”

Section: Professionalismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Some costs and consequences of large-scale social systems modeling

Brewer

1983

Syst. Res.

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Large-scale models have very important theoretical, technical, ethical, and political costs and consequences that are often not recognized, and when recognized, often ignored. These costs and consequences prevent large-scale models from playing a constructive role in policy processes and retard the development of a more useful largescale modeling activity. This essay discusses some of these costs and consequences and recommends their explicit recognition and acknowledgments as the first steps for improvement.KEY WORDS: society, decision making, large-scale models, social systems. w HE CREATION and use of large-scale T models to understand and master society's many problems have not been entirely successful. There are many complicated reasons for this lack of success, too many to cover in a short essay. Emphasized here are the costs and consequences of failures in large-scale modeling more than the causes of failure; the central question here is, "What are some longer-term costs and more fundamental consequences of relying on large-scale modeling?" Addressing this question is more modest, but potentially more important, than simply drawing up another list of the travails and shortcomings of "big models" projects. Many such lists have been produced. A representative sample, and no more than that, would include: Ascher (1978);Szanton (1981);Greenberger, Crenson, and Crissey (1976);Brewer (1973);Brewer and Shubik (1979);Greenberger, Brewer, Hogan, and Russell (1983); Pugh (1977); Deutsch et al. (1977).The direct costs of modeling in terms of man-hours, computer time, data expenses, and so on, may be significant, but will not be considered. Nor are we too concerned about the mountains of computer excreta such efforts produce, especially in light of the mole hills of genuine insight the mountains represent. Ascher's book (1978) contains perhaps the most comprehensive (and devastating) assessment of a diverse range of modeling and forecasting experiences in the literature. A striking and consistent I66Behaviors1 Science, Vulume 2R. 1983 finding in his study is that when genuine insight has occurred it is has most often been in spite of the mountains of heavy analytic work, not because of them. His work is both important and disturbing.This essay is primarily concerned with other not so well understood effects related to theoretical, technical, ethical, and political costs and consequences-many of which extend well beyond the immediate settings of the large-scale social models themselves. These four conceptual categories were first proposed in Brewer (1973) in appraising urban models and then subsequently employed in Brewer and Shubik (1979) for models in the national security/military area.Before sketching some of these costs and consequences, we will review briefly the usual justifications for building large-scale models, the main field and areas of application, and the common experiences.

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“…Others (Ingram and Smith 1993;deLeon 1992;Fischer 1993) indicate that a way to alleviate many of these shortcomings is through a more democratic, i.e., participative, model of discourse and policy design. Durning (1993) has proposed "participatory policy analysis" as one means to implement this remedy; Ortwin Renn et al (1993) and Kathleen and Martin (1991), drawing on the urban planning literature (Friedman 1973;Forester 1988), have gone one step further, actually creating citizen panels as a '"Bracken and Shubik (1982) argue strongly that citizens have both the capability and obligation to involve themselves in complex policy matters, in this case, nuclear strategy.…”

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confidence: 98%

Democratic Values and the Policy Sciences

deLeon¹

1995

American Journal of Political Science

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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. Theory: The policy sciences and democracy are increasingly viewed as inseparable in both theory and practice. Argument: The "policy sciences of democracy" are disturbingly vague as to precisely what is meant by "democracy": is it an indirect, Madisonian democracy, one of representation and factions, or is it a more participatory, deTocquevillean democracy dependent upon general civic participation? Conclusions: The policy sciences, as originally prescribed by Lasswell to include a strong and active democratic strain, have been altered to emphasize an unrepresentative expertise, thus distancing themselves from their initial articulation. Many of the presently perceived shortcomings of the policy sciences can be traced to its proponent's ascription to a removed rather than a direct form of democracy. Implications: The policy sciences must therefore recast their theory and methodology in a more participatory vein in order to recapture their early promise of improved governance through the policy sciences of democracy."Democracy is the name we give the people whenever we need them."

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Strategic war: What are the questions and who should ask them?

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development

General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development

Some costs and consequences of large-scale social systems modeling

Democratic Values and the Policy Sciences

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