Strategic Use of Data Assimilation for Dynamic Data-Driven Simulation

Abstract

Dynamic data-driven simulation (DDDS) incorporates realtime measurement data to improve simulation models during model runtime. Data assimilation (DA) methods aim to best approximate model states with imperfect measurements, where particle Filters (PFs) are commonly used with discrete-event simulations. In this paper, we study three critical conditions of DA using PFs: (1) the time interval of iterations, (2) the number of particles and (3) the level of actual and perceived measurement errors (or noises), and provide recommendations on how to strategically use data assimilation for DDDS considering these conditions. The results show that the estimation accuracy in DA is more constrained by the choice of time intervals than the number of particles. Good accuracy can be achieved without many particles if the time interval is sufficiently short. An over estimation of the level of measurement errors has advantages over an under estimation. Moreover, a slight over estimation has better estimation accuracy and is more responsive to system changes than an accurate perceived level of measurement errors.

Particle filter–based data assimilation in dynamic data-driven simulation: sensitivity analysis of three critical experimental conditions

“…We analyze their effects on the estimation accuracy, discuss the implications, and give recommendations on future research directions. This paper is an extended version of Cho et al 39…”