Strategic Offsetting Behavior: Evidence From National Collegiate Athletic Association Men's Basketball

Abstract

Strategic offsetting behavior occurs when a policy is offset by an individual not targeted by the policy. By affecting the payoffs of the target the incentives of a strategic competitor are adjusted, which acts to mitigate the policy. Evidence is presented using data from National Collegiate Athletic Association men's basketball. For the 2008-2009 season, the three-point line was extended. This leads to not only a decrease in three-point shooting and scoring, but also a decrease in the percentage of two-point shots made. This evidence is consistent with defenses adjusting their focus away from the more difficult three-point shot, which strategically offset the policy. (JEL K20, C72)

Strategic Offsetting Behavior in the NBA

“…McCannon (2011) refers to this sort of agent response as strategic offsetting behavior. In his recent study of men’s college basketball, he finds evidence of such behavior resulting from the extension of the three-point line.…”

“…Strategic offsetting behavior presupposes mutually aware agents, so a simple game theoretic model may help in clarifying the response in question. McCannon (2011) utilizes such a framework in his study, and it has also been to analyze strategic behavior in soccer (Chiappori, Levitt, & Groseclose, 2002; Palacios-Huerta, 2003), tennis (Walker & Wooders, 2001), and football (McGarrity & Linnen, 2010).…”

“…The opportunity for strategic offsetting behavior lies in the defensive team’s response. As McCannon (2011) notes, defensive strategy is not observable and the possibility of changing behavior means the net effect on centers’ effectiveness is uncertain. However, the model suggests a straightforward empirical test: controlling for other relevant factors, analyze how the contribution of centers to team output changes in light of the Mikan rule.…”

“…Strategic offsetting behavior occurs when agents’ optimizing behavior in response to an exogenous change leads to unintended and frequently undesirable consequences. The literature relating strategic offsetting behavior to sports (e.g., McCannon, 2011; Pope & Tollison, 2009) shows that rule changes designed to deter a specific behavior often leads rational agents to engage in more of that behavior because the rule change had an unexpected effect on relative prices. Using this framework, this article strongly suggests the Mikan rule was noticeably less effective than expected.…”

The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football

“…Banjeree et al [34] investigate the NHL's overtime rules change on play style during the both the regular and overtime periods. McCannon [40] investigates the effect of the three-point line being extended on men's NCAA basketball finding that the change led to a decrease in three-point shooting and scoring along with a decrease in the percentage of successful two-point shots. Regarding rule changes and penalties, Witt [41] evaluates the effects of FIFA's rule change regarding the increase in offenses qualifying as red-card worthy on the number of the number and types of penalties called.…”