Strategic Hedging and Changes in Geopolitical Capabilities for Second-Tier States

Vennet, Nikolas Vander; Salman, Mohammad

doi:10.1007/s41111-018-0111-5

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 17 publications

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“…It is argued that while hedging may indeed be an optimal strategy for relatively smaller powers, it is neither costless nor easy to execute, especially if a smaller power is residing in a particularly unstable regional geopolitical environment. To this end, although numerous factors are important to the potential successfulness of a hedge – such as signalling (Lim and Cooper, 2015), capabilities (Vander Vennet and Salman, 2019), and domestic politics (Hiep, 2013) – it is argued that the initial key factor a relatively smaller state needs to consider is the permissiveness of the regional geopolitical environment they reside in to hedging.…”

Section: Smaller Power Hedgingmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Hedging Goes Wrong: Lessons from Ukraine’s Failed Hedge of the EU and Russia

Smith

2020

Global Policy

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When confronted by the competing zero‐sum regional strategies of the EU and Russia between 2010 and 2013, Ukraine chose to aggressively pursue a dual‐aligned hedge. This policy choice, in part, helped precipitate a disastrous outcome: the Ukraine crisis. Using the insights of the literature on smaller power hedging and regional security complex theory, it is argued that Viktor Yanukovych misperceived the geopolitical feedback emanating from the Eastern Europe security complex, leading it to pursuing a suboptimal foreign policy. Hedging was still the optimal foreign policy for Ukraine, but arguably a more modest form of hedging was required. It is argued that Ukraine’s experience raises important questions about the actorness of smaller powers to pursue hedging strategies in geopolitically‐charged regional security complexes.

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Section: Smaller Power Hedgingmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Hedging Goes Wrong: Lessons from Ukraine’s Failed Hedge of the EU and Russia

Smith

2020

Global Policy

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Reacting to the Decline of the West?

Didier

2021

European Review of International Studies

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This article discusses the European Union (EU)’s strategic adaptation to the relative decline of the United States (US)-led Western world order by introducing the concept of hedging: a strategy of concomitant engagement with the system leader and its competitors aiming to minimise the risks of confrontation with either of them. To grasp the EU’s shift towards strategic hedging, the article analyses the subsequent 2003 Security Strategy, 2008 Implementation Report, 2015 Strategic Review and ongoing 2016 Global Strategy, and then puts the latter’s core concepts of ‘principled pragmatism’ and ‘strategic autonomy’ into perspective vis-à-vis international developments since 2016, related to ‘America First’ and the Sino-American rivalry. The article ultimately argues that, confronted with global power diffusion but constrained by the preponderance of transatlanticism, hedging has become a primary strategic option for the EU to emancipate from the US without alienating it and to compensate for the waning of the Western world order.

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Strategic Hedging and Changes in Geopolitical Capabilities for Second-Tier States

Cited by 2 publications

References 17 publications

When Hedging Goes Wrong: Lessons from Ukraine’s Failed Hedge of the EU and Russia

When Hedging Goes Wrong: Lessons from Ukraine’s Failed Hedge of the EU and Russia

Reacting to the Decline of the West?

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