Strategic Analysis Overview

Abstract

NASA's Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction -performance, affordability, and risk -and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Logistics Modeling for Lunar Exploration Systems

“…The logistics modeling approach as described has been accredited and used to perform deterministic lunar exploration scenario modeling for NASA's Lunar Architecture Team (LAT) and Constellation Architecture TeamLunar (CxAT_Lunar) studies 3 , supporting the assessment of NASA's lunar exploration scenarios from an integrated perspective. This integrated approach has provided decision-makers with an understanding of the performance impacts of: changing priorities, objectives, and assumptions; element-level design choices and technology investments; and differing system (element, architecture, and scenario) approaches.…”

A Flexible Architecture and Object-Oriented Model for Space Logistics Simulation

“…1 Further generalization of the existing model from SpaceNet had reached a point of decreasing returns due to a restricting bus-like architecture of the underlying procedural code. Object-oriented programming methods were desired to introduce higher levels of modularity and flexibility for ease of future development.…”

Lunar exploration architecture level key drivers and sensitivities

“…The SAT performs a high-level analysis that evaluates lunar exploration architecture scenarios through deterministic and probabilistic manifesting, risk analysis, affordability analysis, and value evaluation. [2,3] Scenario analysis is completed for a planned set of missions in which cargo and crewed landers deliver elements, logistics, and humans to the lunar surface. Each type of lander has a capacity that is available to deliver elements and/or logistics.…”