Strain variation and anomalous climate synergistically influence cholera pandemics

Abstract

Explanations for the genesis and propagation of recurrent cholera pandemics since 1817 have remained elusive. Evolutionary change of the pathogen is presumed to have been a dominant factor behind the 7th El Tor pandemic, but little is known to support this hypothesis for preceding pandemics. We investigate the concomitant roles of climate and putative strain variation for the 6th cholera pandemic (1899-1923; the one with the highest ever associated mortality in India), using newly assembled historical records for climate variables and cholera deaths for Bengal, Assam, Bihar and Bombay provinces in former British India. We compare this historical pandemic with the 7th (El Tor) one and with the temporary emergence of the O139 strain in Bangladesh and globally. Finally, we ran multi-model climate simulations to infer past and future long-term means of rainfall distributions on the basis of 39 models for 1861-2100, and for different periods of 50 years (1875-1925; 1975-2025 and 2050-2100). The 6th cholera pandemic featured a large scale synchronisation with a delay of a few years in both seasonal and interannual cholera variability over the endemic Bengal region during the El Nino event of 1904-07. Additional evidence supporting the establishment of a new strain includes a shift of cholera incidence to older age groups, an increase in the case fatality rate and the suppression of the spring cholera peak. The 6th cholera pandemic of Indian origin was associated with a novel and particularly invasive strain of new territory, and also with some delay, of endemic parts of India that act as a genetic regional reservoir of the disease. Climate anomalies appear to have played an important role in facilitating the establishment of this invasive strain, with environmental conditions similar to those underlying strain changes associated with ENSO in today Bangladesh. The evolutionary change of pathogens can act synergistically with climatic conditions in the replacement and propagation of emerging strains, as was the case in cholera 7th pandemic. Increased climate variability and extremes under global warming would thus provide windows of opportunity for emerging new pathogens.