The physics behind the iceberg calving process is poorly understood, but by using a simple fracturing criterion based on the accumulation and coupling of many microcracks, the complicated mechanics of calving can be simulated by a set of percolation rules. Calving simulations with this simple percolation model give results which are consistent with limited observations of iceberg size distributions and terminus morphologies. For steady state scenarios, the model suggests that the calving process can be characterized by a small set of scaling exponentsø Introduction By controlling the ablation of ice at the termini of ice sheets and glaciers, the iceberg calving process plays a key role in the growth and decay of ice masses which terminate in the oceans. This growth and decay, in turn, has a significant role in changing climate and in sea level rise. There is mounting evidence, for example, that massive calving episodes from the Laurentide ice sheet (i.e., Heinrich events) altered deep water formation by flooding the North Atlantic with fresh water [Bond et al., 1992; Keigwin and Lehman, 1994]. Icebergs calved from grounded ice masses contribute water to the world's oceans, and periods of sustained calving may raise sea level [Thomas, 1985]. The stability of large tidewater glaciers, such as the Columbia in Alaska, is also especially sensitive to calving rates [Meier and Post, 1987]. Despite these important global interactions, the iceberg calving process is understood in only the broadest of physical contexts. The most fundamental parameters have been difficult to quantify and predict, such as the iceberg flux Qc and the calving speed vc = Q•/AT, where AT is the terminus cross-sectional area. A simple linear relationship between calving speed and water depth at the terminus has proven remarkably accurate for temperate (at the pressure melting point) glaciers which terminate in tidewater [Brown et al., 1982]. However, the slope of the relationship inexplicably decreases for colder ice and for glaciers terminating in fresh water. In addition, calving speeds are known to change on short time and spatial scales [Brown et al., 1982], and seasonal variations, which are difficult to attribute to changes in water depth, are particularly pronounced. Other observations suggest less pronounced relations between calving speed and ice thickness, precipitation, runoff, and basal water pressure; however, none of these observations have been successfully explained with a Copyright 1995 by the American Geophysical Union. Paper number 94JB03133. 0148-0227/95/94 JB-03133505.00 physically based mechanism. A possible connection between tensile strain rates and calving speed is particularly intriguing because crevassing (and hence possibly the cracking responsible for a calving event) is primarily a function of longitudinal extension [Meier• 1958]. While intuitive, this connection is only partially supported by field studies, as illustrated by data from the 6225 6226 BAHR: ICEBERG CALVING CALVING ec 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 ß ß ß ß 02 04 06 08 •