Stock Market Volatility and Terrorism: New Evidence from the Markov Switching Model

Abstract

Terrorism in Pakistan poses a significant risk towards the lives of people by violent destruction and physical damage. In addition to human loss, such catastrophic activities also affect the financial markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of terrorism on the volatility of the Pakistan stock market. The financial impact of 339 terrorist attacks for a period of 18 years (2000–2018) is estimated w.r.t. target type, days of the week, and surprise factor. Three important macroeconomic variables namely exchange rate, gold, and oil were also considered. The findings of the EGARCH (1, 1) model revealed that the terrorist attacks targeting the security forces and commercial facilities significantly increased the stock market volatility. The significant impact of terrorist attacks on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday confirms the overreaction of investors to terrorist news. Furthermore, the results confirmed the negative linkage between the surprise factor and stock market returns. The findings of this study have significant implications for investors and policymakers.

Political uncertainty, financial crises, and stock market volatility: Evidence fromMENAregion

“…When this is obvious, these abnormal yields seem to persist beyond the date of the event, but they tend to disappear rather quickly. In the same vein, Aslam et al (2021) tested the effect of financial impact of 339 terrorist attacks over an 18-year period (2000-2018). Findings indicate that terrorist attacks on security forces and commercial facilities significantly increased stock market volatility.…”