Stock market prediction-COVID-19 scenario with lexicon-based approach

Abstract

Stock market forecasting remains a difficult problem in the economics industry due to its incredible stochastic nature. The creation of such an expert system aids investors in making investment decisions about a certain company. Due to the complexity of the stock market, using a single data source is insufficient to accurately reflect all of the variables that influence stock fluctuations. However, predicting stock market movement is a challenging undertaking that requires extensive data analysis, particularly from a big data perspective. In order to address these problems and produce a feasible solution, appropriate statistical models and artificially intelligent algorithms are needed. This paper aims to propose a novel stock market prediction by the following four stages; they are, preprocessing, feature extraction, improved feature level fusion and prediction. The input data is first put through a preparation step in which stock, news, and Twitter data (related to the COVID-19 epidemic) are processed. Under the big data perspective, the input data is taken into account. These pre-processed data are then put through the feature extraction, The improved aspect-based lexicon generation, PMI, and n-gram-based features in this case are derived from the news and Twitter data, while technical indicator-based features are derived from the stock data. The improved feature-level fusion phase is then applied to the extracted features. The ensemble classifiers, which include DBN, CNN, and DRN, were proposed during the prediction phase. Additionally, a SI-MRFO model is suggested to enhance the efficiency of the prediction model by adjusting the best classifier weights. Finally, SI-MRFO model’s effectiveness compared to the existing models with regard to MAE, MAPE, MSE and MSLE. The SI-MRFO accomplished the minimal MAE rate for the 90th learning percentage is approximately 0.015 while other models acquire maximum ratings.