Stochastic operation model for readiness assessment of small wind turbines based on Markov theory

Abstract

Wind energy is now one of the most important alternative sources of renewable energy. The development of wind power generation is a prerequisite to meet environmental and sustainable development requirements while achieving energy security goals. The condition for the effectiveness of the proper operation of a wind power plant is its ability to perform the intended functions, which can be expressed by the coefficient of technical readiness. This article presents an original analysis of the readiness of small wind turbines. As part of the research, an original stochastic operation model was developed based on the application of the Markov process theory. Based on the collected data, a 3‐state phase space of the studied process was identified. Various analyses were carried out to calculate the operating coefficients of wind power plants. The ergodic (boundary) probabilities were calculated using three methods. The conditional probabilities were then determined based on the initial distribution. The resulting readiness factors, not exceeding 30%, indicate the low operational efficiency of the small wind turbines in question. Furthermore, an analysis of the sensitivity of the performance factors was carried out for the analysed objects.