Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Evaluation of Combined Heat and Power Units

Wang, Haichao; Jiao, Wenling; Lahdelma, Risto; Zhu, Changan; Ping-hua, Zou

doi:10.3390/en8010059

Cited by 29 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(28 reference statements)

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“…The overview of application of these methods to evaluation and aggregation judgement measures for performance comparison of nuclear energy systems can be found in [28,[34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. Methods' parameters were selected in accordance with recommendations discussed in [29].…”

Section: Comparison Of Ranking Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Schwenk-Ferrero

Андрианов

2017

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

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The paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for a comparative evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies taking into account different local perspectives (expert and stakeholder opinions). Of note, a novel approach is taken using a multiple-criteria formulation that is methodologically adapted to tackle various conflicting criteria and a large number of expert/stakeholder groups involved in the decision-making process. The purpose is to develop a framework and to show its application to qualitative comparison and ranking of options in a hypothetical case of three waste management alternatives: interim storage at and/or away from the reactor site for the next 100 years, interim decay storage followed in midterm by disposal in a national repository, and disposal in a multinational repository. Additionally, major aspects of a decision-making aid are identified and discussed in separate paper sections dedicated to application context, decision supporting process, in particular problem structuring, objective hierarchy, performance evaluation modeling, sensitivity/robustness analyses, and interpretation of results (practical impact). The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the application of the MCDA framework developed to a generic hypothetical case and indicate how MCDA could support a decision on nuclear waste management policies in a "small" newcomer country embarking on nuclear technology in the future. Application ContextFrom a formal point of view, the decision problem formulation is a triplet consisting of (1) a set of potential alternatives which describe the possible actions that a decision-maker can undertake, (2) a set of points of view under which the potential actions are analyzed, evaluated, and compared, including different scenarios for the future, and (3) the problem statement. This section describes the problem application context.It should be noted that assessment of the technical performance and safety of repository sites is a very complex R&D problem. Therefore, the technical aspects of "repository" options will be only reviewed and briefly discussed within the confines of the paper. General criteria and metrics (indicators) which are in this case rather dynamic (time frame-dependent), are, however, addressed.In practice, the extent of R&D efforts is dependent on specific national conditions, for instance, available geological formations (rock medium) for final HLW disposal in a country and appropriate assessment of characteristics of nuclear waste that is necessary for designing a HLW repository. Thus the technology-holding countries have already established expert organizations responsible for final high-level waste disposal and conducting R&D activities on safety assessment studies, on minimization of the impact on the environment, and on site robustness tests (predictable performance response in the face of uncertainties).In order to construct an objective hierarchy tree, IAEA basic principles are therefore used. These principles for nuclear waste management st...

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Section: Comparison Of Ranking Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Schwenk-Ferrero

Андрианов

2017

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

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“…The spread of the overall scores due to uncertainty in waiting factors is presented as box-and-whisker plot in Fig. 9 on the base of evaluations performed using a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis [28][29][30]). Box-and whisker-plots are a handy way to display numerical data breaking the entire data set down into four quartiles, each one with an equal number of data values.…”

Section: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis With Regard To Weightsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison and Screening of NFC Options in View of Sustainable Performance and Waste Management

Schwenk-Ferrero¹,

Андрианов²

2017

Preprint

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Is it true that the nuclear technology applied to electric energy generation offers a clean, safe, reliable and affordable i.e. sustainable alternative? Yes it is, but its impact on the environment strongly depends on the implementation bearing residual risks due to a human factor, technical failures or natural catastrophes. A full response is therefore difficult and can first be given when the wicked multi-disciplinary problems get well formulated and "solved". These problems have multidimensional nature lying at the interface between: necessary R&D effort, the industrial deployment and the technology impact in view of the environmental sustainability including the management of produced hazardous waste. This enormous complexity indicates that just a description of the problem might represent a problem. The paper proposes a holistic approach to assess the nuclear energy systems potential with respect to sustainable performance applying Multi-criteria decision analysis with a suitable objective tree and a multi-level criteria structure and examines the trading-off techniques for ranking of the alternatives. The framework proposes a multi-criteria and multistakeholders treatment which can be used as a pre-decisional support towards an implementation of nuclear fuel cycles adapted to national preferences and priorities. Proposed approach addresses some aspects of the environmental footprint of nuclear energy systems. Advanced nuclear fuel cycles, previously investigated by the NEA/OECD expert group WASTEMAN, are analyzed as a case study. Sustainability facets of waste management, resource utilization and economics are in focus.Keywords: advanced nuclear fuel cycles; waste management; resource utilization; economics; performance comparison; multi-criteria decision analysis; sensitivity/uncertainty analysis; environmental footprint BackgroundInnovative electrical energy generating technologies should be sustainable that means clean, safe, reliable and affordable and moreover able to preserve resources and minimize liabilities [1]. The nuclear technology option might compete in this sense with other large-scale energy producing technologies as, for instance, those consuming the coal or oil resources [2]. However, similar to the other non-nuclear energy generation options, each nuclear option produces hazardous radioactive waste -called high-level waste (HLW) due to the contained long-living radionuclides. For this reason, HLW should be isolated from the biosphere by a disposal and an enclosure in special facilities, called HLW repositories [3]. Mainly for this reason, nuclear waste management causes in some countries a public concern due to a residual risk of radiotoxic fission products' or minor actinides' migration from casks containing HLW into the environment. This risk which is higher for waste radiotoxic components soluble in water is assessed in the R&D studies on repository safety cases. Another type of threads were: A severe accident of boiling water reactors after an earthquake and a tsunami, which ...

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“…The spread of the overall scores due to uncertainty in waiting factors is presented here as a box-and-whisker plot in Figure 9. Figure 9 was created on the base of evaluations performed using a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis [40][41][42]). Box-and whisker-plots are a handy way to display numerical data breaking the entire data set down into four quartiles, each one with an equal number of data values.…”

Section: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis With Regard To Weightsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison and Screening of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options in View of Sustainable Performance and Waste Management

Schwenk-Ferrero

Андрианов

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Is it true that a nuclear technology approach to generate electric energy offers a clean, safe, reliable and affordable, i.e., sustainable option? In principle yes, however a technology impact on the environment strongly depends on the actual implementation bearing residual risks due to technical failures, human factors, or natural catastrophes. A full response is thus difficult and can be given first when the wicked multi-disciplinary issues get well formulated and "resolved". These problems are lying at the interface between: the necessary R&D effort, the industrial deployment and the technology impact in view of the environmental sustainability including the management of produced hazardous waste. As such, this problem is clearly of multi-dimensional nature. This enormous complexity indicates that just a description of the problem might cause a dilemma. The paper proposes a novel holistic approach applying Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to assess the potential of nuclear energy systems with respect to a sustainable performance. It shows how to establish a multi-level criteria structure tree and examines the trading-off techniques for scoring and ranking of options. The presented framework allows multi-criteria and multi-group treatment. The methodology can be applied to support any pre-decisional process launched in a country to find the best nuclear and/or non-nuclear option according to national preferences and priorities. The approach addresses major aspects of the environmental footprint of nuclear energy systems. As a case study, advanced nuclear fuel cycles are analyzed, which were previously investigated by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA/OECD) expert group WASTEMAN. Sustainability facets of waste management, resource utilization and economics are in focus.Keywords: advanced nuclear fuel cycles; waste management; resource utilisation; economics; performance comparison, multi-criteria decision analysis; sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, environmental footprint BackgroundInnovative electrical energy generating technologies should be sustainable, i.e., clean, safe, reliable and affordable and moreover able to preserve resources and minimise liabilities [1]. The nuclear technology option might compete in this sense with other large-scale energy producing technologies as, for instance those consuming coal or oil resources [2]. However, very much like other non-nuclear energy generation options, a nuclear option produces hazardous radioactive waste (radwaste)-called high-level waste (HLW) that contains long-living radionuclides. Therefore HLW should be isolated from the biosphere by a disposal site/system and an enclosure in special facilities, called HLW repositories [3]. This is the reason why nuclear waste management is of public concern in some

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Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Evaluation of Combined Heat and Power Units

Cited by 29 publications

References 27 publications

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Comparison and Screening of NFC Options in View of Sustainable Performance and Waste Management

Comparison and Screening of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options in View of Sustainable Performance and Waste Management

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