Stochastic Modeling of Possible Pasts to Illuminate Future Risk

Abstract

Disasters are fortunately uncommon events. Far more common are events that lead to societal crises, which are notable in their impact, but fall short of causing a disaster. Such near-miss events may be reimagined through stochastic modeling to be worse than they actually were. These are termed downward counterfactuals. A spectrum of reimagined events, covering both natural and man-made hazards, are considered. Included is a counterfactual version of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Attention to this counterfactual coronavirus in 2015 would have prepared the world better for COVID-19.