Stochastic and global sensitivity analyses of uncertain parameters affecting the safety of geological carbon storage in saline aquifers of the Michigan Basin

Abstract

Geological carbon storage (GCS) has been proposed as a favorable technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to the atmosphere. One of the main concerns about GCS is the risk of CO 2 escape from the storage formation through leakage pathways in the sealing layer. This study aims at understanding the main sources of uncertainty affecting the upward migration of CO 2 through preexisting "passive" wells and the risk of fissuring of target formation during GCS operations, which may create pathways for CO 2 escape. The analysis focuses on a potential GCS site located within the Michigan Basin, a geologic basin situated on the Lower Peninsula of the state of Michigan. For this purpose, we perform a stochastic analysis (SA) and a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to investigate the influence of uncertain parameters such as: permeability and porosity of the injection formation, passive well permeability, system compressibility, brine residual saturation and CO 2 end-point relative permeability.For the GSA, we apply the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST), which can rank parameters based on their direct impact on the output, or first-order effect, and capture the interaction effect of one parameter with the others, or higher-order effect. To simulate GCS, we use an efficient semianalytical multiphase flow model, which makes the application of the SA and the GSA computationally affordable. Results show that, among model parameters, the most influential on both fluid overpressure and CO 2 mass leakage is the injection formation permeability. Brine residual saturation also has a significant impact on fluid overpressure. While influence of permeability on fluid overpressure is mostly first-order, brine residual saturation's influence is mostly higher-order. CO 2 mass leakage is also affected by passive well permeability, followed by porosity and system compressibility through higher order effects.

An explicit integral solution for pressure build‐up during CO2injection into infinite saline aquifers

“…In recently, Baù et al . proposed an iterative global pressure solution (IGPS) for the semi‐analytical solution of Nordbotten and Celia, and González‐Nicolás et al . discussed the stochastic and sensitivity of the residual saturation of brine by using the iterative global pressure solution.…”

“…Therefore, it is difficult for engineers to understand and apply. In recently, Baù et al 37 proposed an iterative global pressure solution (IGPS) for the semi-analytical solution of Nordbotten and Celia, and González-Nicolás et al 38 discussed the stochastic and sensitivity of the residual saturation of brine by using the iterative global pressure solution. However, the iterative global pressure solution is a numerical arithmetic whose results rely on numerical iteration, which introduced the problem of accuracy, convergence and stability.…”

A Hierarchical Framework for CO2 Storage Capacity in Deep Saline Aquifer Formations

“…Analytical algorithms using several assumptions can quickly obtain storage capacity. These analytical algorithms include those for multiphase flow, semi-analytical algorithms of multiphase (two-phase) flow, solute-transport models of multiple phases and multiple species, coupled multiphasereaction-temperature algorithms, coupled geomechanics-flow algorithms, and others (Claridge, 1972;Nordbotten et al, 2005;Okwen et al, 2010;Szulczewski et al, 2014;González-Nicolás et al, 2015;Ganjdanesh and Hosseini, 2018;Middleton et al, 2020;De Simone and Krevor, 2021). The analytical algorithms are preferred because they require a relatively small amount of data based on the idealized or conceptual model and can provide quick assessments with acceptable resolutions, especially for basin or sub-basin scale evaluations with limited data.…”

Injection into the shallow aquifer-aquitard system beneath Mexico City for counteracting pore pressure declines due to deeper groundwater withdrawals: Analysis of one injection well

“…This finding is consistent with the results of stochastic simulations of multiphase flow. The importance of the permeability of the injection formation in application to geological CO 2 storage was pointed out in González et al (2015). Authors found that the aquifer permeability have a significant influence on the pore pressure producing a wide-spread range of fluid overpressure in their stochastic analysis.…”