Stochastic analysis of tsunami runup due to heterogeneous coseismic slip and dispersion

Løvholt, Finn; Pedersen, Geir; Bazin, Sara; Kühn, Daniela; Bredesen, Rolv Erlend; Harbitz, C. B.

doi:10.1029/2011jc007616

Cited by 62 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…For nonuniform sources we may have scales down to a few times the depth, as discussed by Løvholt et al (2012) and Pedersen (2001). However, the leading wave will generally be dominated by the longest initial length scale, which then corresponds to λ.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Dispersion of tsunamis: does it really matter?

Glimsdal

Pedersen

Harbitz

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This article focuses on the effect of dispersion in the field of tsunami modeling. Frequency dispersion in the linear long-wave limit is first briefly discussed from a theoretical point of view. A single parameter, denoted as "dispersion time", for the integrated effect of frequency dispersion is identified. This parameter depends on the wavelength, the water depth during propagation, and the propagation distance or time. Also the role of long-time asymptotes is discussed in this context. The wave generation by the two main tsunami sources, namely earthquakes and landslides, are briefly discussed with formulas for the surface response to the bottom sources. Dispersive effects are then exemplified through a semi-idealized study of a moderate-strength inverse thrust fault. Emphasis is put on the directivity, the role of the "dispersion time", the significance of the Boussinesq model employed (dispersive effect), and the effects of the transfer from bottom sources to initial surface elevation. Finally, the experience from a series of case studies, including earthquake- and landslide-generated tsunamis, is presented. The examples are taken from both historical (e.g. the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and potential tsunamis (e.g. the tsunami after the potential La Palma volcanic flank collapse). Attention is mainly given to the role of dispersion during propagation in the deep ocean and the way the accumulation of this effect relates to the "dispersion time". It turns out that this parameter is useful as a first indication as to when frequency dispersion is important, even though ambiguity with respect to the definition of the wavelength may be a problem for complex cases. Tsunamis from most landslides and moderate earthquakes tend to display dispersive behavior, at least in some directions. On the other hand, for the mega events of the last decade dispersion during deep water propagation is mostly noticeable for transoceanic propagation.

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confidence: 99%

“…For shallow earthquakes, with uniform slip, we may then employ an analytic expression, while a numerical integral is used otherwise (Pedersen, 2001;Løvholt et al, 2012). (2) We also compute the full three-dimensional response from an uplift distribution on the bottom.…”

Section: Natmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dispersion of tsunamis: does it really matter?

Glimsdal

Pedersen

Harbitz

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

181

132

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“…For instance, location, size, shape, and amplitude of slip asperities differ significantly among inversion models for the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake , reflecting the complexity and uncertainty in imaging the rupture process for mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. Additionally, different source modelling approaches, such as surface rupture to ocean bottom, effects of horizontal deformation of steep slopes on vertical deformation, hydrodynamic response of water column, and time-dependent rupture process, slow versus fast rupture 30 propagation speed, will influence the resulting tsunami waves (Geist, 2002;McCloskey et al, 2008;Løvholt et al, 2012;Satake et al, 2013). All these factors contribute to epistemic uncertainties related to tsunami source modelling.…”

Section: Uncertainty Quantification In Tsunami Hazard Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas

Beven¹,

Almeida²,

Aspinall³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory 20 probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 2. 25

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“…On the other hand, Freund and Barnett (1976) pointed out that tsunami wave height is underestimated more when tsunami calculations are performed with uniform slip distributions than with heterogeneous slip distributions, but studies on the effect of planar nonuniformity of fault slip on tsunami wave height are limited (e.g., Geist and Dmowska 1999;Geist 2002;McCloskey et al 2007McCloskey et al , 2008Løvholt et al 2012). Geist (2002) calculated tsunami wave height uncertainty for the Pacific coastline of Mexico by fixing the moment magnitude at 8.0 and using a trench fault with 100 cases of random slip.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They also confirmed that nonuniformity of slip distribution greatly influenced coastal wave height. Løvholt et al (2012) quantitatively studied the effect of 500 cases of artificially generated random trench slip distributions on tsunami runup height. They concluded that a hydrostatic pressure model produces artificially high uncertainty and that a nonhydrostatic pressure model produces a decrease in uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic analysis and uncertainty assessment of tsunami wave height using a random source parameter model that targets a Tohoku-type earthquake fault

Fukutani

Suppasri

Imamura

2014

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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We created a fault model with a Tohoku-type earthquake fault zone having a random slip distribution and performed stochastic tsunami hazard analysis using a logic tree. When the stochastic tsunami hazard analysis results and the Tohoku earthquake observation results were compared, the observation results of a GPS wave gauge off the southern Iwate coast indicated a return period equivalent to approximately 1,709 years (0.50 fractile), and the observation results of a GPS wave gauge off the shore of Fukushima Prefecture indicated a return period of 600 years (0.50 fractile). Analysis of the influence of the number of slip distribution patterns on the results of the stochastic tsunami hazard analysis showed that the number of slip distribution patterns considered greatly influenced the results of the hazard analysis for a relatively large wave height. When the 90 % confidence interval and coefficient of variation of tsunami wave height were defined as an index for projecting the uncertainty of tsunami wave height, the 90 % confidence interval was typically high in locations where the wave height of each fractile point was high. At a location offshore of the Boso Peninsula of Chiba Prefecture where the coefficient of variation reached the maximum, it was confirmed that variations in maximum wave height due to differences in slip distribution of the fault zone contributed to the coefficient of variation being large.

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Stochastic analysis of tsunami runup due to heterogeneous coseismic slip and dispersion

Cited by 62 publications

References 53 publications

Dispersion of tsunamis: does it really matter?

Dispersion of tsunamis: does it really matter?

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas

Stochastic analysis and uncertainty assessment of tsunami wave height using a random source parameter model that targets a Tohoku-type earthquake fault

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