Modern quantum chemical electronic structure methods typically applied to localized chemical bonding are developed to predict atomic structures and free energies for meso-tetraalkylporphyrin self-assembled monolayer (SAM) polymorph formation from organic solution on highly ordered pyrolytic graphite surfaces. Large polymorphdependent dispersion-induced substrateâmolecule interactions (e.g., â100 kcal mol â1 to â150 kcal mol â1 for tetratrisdecylporphyrin) are found to drive SAM formation, opposed nearly completely by large polymorph-dependent dispersion-induced solvent interactions (70-110 kcal mol â1 ) and entropy effects (25-40 kcal mol â1 at 298 K) favoring dissolution. Dielectric continuum models of the solvent are used, facilitating consideration of many possible SAM polymorphs, along with quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical and dispersion-corrected density functional theory calculations. These predict and interpret newly measured and existing high-resolution scanning tunnelling microscopy images of SAM structure, rationalizing polymorph formation conditions. A wide range of molecular condensed matter properties at room temperature now appear suitable for prediction and analysis using electronic structure calculations.self-assembled monolayers | density functional theory | dispersion | free energy | polymorphism A priori calculations of the free energies of chemical reactions using density functional theory (DFT) and/or ab initio methods are now well established for gas-phase processes (1, 2), gas surface reactions (3), and, using continuum self-consistent reaction field (SCRF) methods, for condensed phase processes also (4). Over the last few years, a major advance in computational methods has occurred, however, allowing for rapid and accurate evaluation of intermolecular dispersion interactions. This makes feasible similar SCRF calculations for physisorption, macromolecule structuring, and other self-assembly processes in condensed phases. We present the first application of this type, to our knowledge, considering the free energy of formation of various polymorphs of tetraalkylporphyrin self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) at solid/liquid interfaces on highly ordered pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) surfaces. Calculated structures and free energies are used to interpret new and existing high-resolution scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) images, focusing on the critical roles played by the dispersion interaction in driving SAM formation and by entropy and dispersion-based desolvation effects that oppose it.Calculating a priori free energies for SAM formation from solution is a significant challenge. Accurate representations of the substrateâmolecule energies, the intermolecular energies, the solvent interaction energies, and the effects of solvent structure are required, a set of tasks that, with a few exceptions (see e.g., refs. 5 and 6), has remained prohibitive a priori. Alternatively, model calculations have been useful for identifying key qualitative features (7-11), whereas some full molecular dynamics si...