Objective
To determine if maternal plasma concentrations of angiogenic and
anti-angiogenic factors measured at 24–28 weeks of gestation can
predict subsequent fetal death.
Methods
A case-cohort study was designed to include 1000 randomly selected
subjects and all remaining fetal deaths (cases) from a cohort of 4006 women
with a singleton pregnancy, enrolled at 6–22 weeks of gestation, in
a pregnancy biomarker cohort study. The placentas of all fetal deaths were
histologically examined by pathologists who used a standardized protocol and
were blinded to patient outcomes. Placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble
endoglin (sEng), and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1
(sVEGFR-1) concentrations were measured by ELISA assays. Quantiles of the
analyte concentrations (or concentration ratios) were estimated as a
function of gestational age among women who delivered live neonates but did
not develop preeclampsia or deliver small-for-gestational–age (SGA)
newborns. A positive test was defined as analyte concentrations (or ratios)
<2.5th and 10th centiles [PlGF,
PlGF/sVEGFR-1 (angiogenic index-1), and PlGF/sEng)] or
>90th and 97.5th centiles (sVEGFR-1 and sEng).
Inverse probability weighting was used to reflect the parent cohort when
estimating the relative risk.
Results
There were 11 fetal deaths and 829 controls with samples available
for analysis between 24–28 weeks of gestation. Three fetal deaths
occurred prior to 28 weeks and eight at or after 28 weeks of gestation. The
rate of placental lesions consistent with maternal vascular underperfusion
was 33.3% (1/3) among those who had a fetal death before 28 weeks
and 87.5% (7/8) of those who had this complication at or after 28
weeks of gestation.
The maternal plasma angiogenic index-1 value was below the
10th centile in 63.6% (7/11) of the fetal death group
and in 11.1% (92/829) of the controls. The angiogenic index-1 value
was <2.5th centile in 54.5% (6/11) of the fetal death
group and in 3.7% (31/829) of the controls. An angiogenic index-1
value <2.5th centile had the largest positive likelihood ratio
for predicting fetal death >24 weeks (14.6; 95% CI,
7.7–27.7) and a relative risk of 29.1 (95% CI,
8.8–97.1), followed by sEng >97.5thcentile and
PlGF/sEng <2.5th, both with a positive likelihood ratio of
13.7 (95% CI, 7.3–25.8) and a relative risk of 27.4
(95% CI, 8.2–91.2).
Among women without a fetal death whose plasma angiogenic index-1
concentration ratio was below the 2.5th centile, 61%
(19/31) developed preeclampsia or delivered an SGA neonate; when the
10th centile was used as the cut-off, 37% (34/92) of
women had these adverse outcomes.
Conclusions
1) A maternal plasma angiogenic index-1 value below the
2.5th centile (0.126) at 24–28 weeks of gestation
carries a 29-fold increase in the risk of subsequent fetal death and
identifies 55% of subsequent fetal deaths with a false-positive rate
of 3.5%; and 2) 61% of women who have a false-positive test
result will subsequently experience adverse pregnancy outcomes.