Stereoscopic Study of the Kinematic Evolution of a Coronal Mass Ejection and Its Driven Shock From the Sun to the Earth and the Prediction of Their Arrival Times

Hess, Phillip; Zhang, J.

doi:10.1088/0004-637x/792/1/49

Cited by 70 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The elevation angle is comparable to the GCS results reported by Möstl et al (2014) and Hess & Zhang (2014) based on coronagraph images. The orientation and chirality of the reconstructed flux rope are consistent with those derived from the solar source observations displayed in Figure 1.…”

Section: Near-earth Properties and Geo-effectivenesssupporting

confidence: 86%

Sun-to-Earth Characteristics of the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection and Associated Geo-Effectiveness

Liu

Wang

et al. 2016

ApJ

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We analyze multi-spacecraft observations associated with the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), covering the source region on the Sun from SDO, stereoscopic imaging observations from STEREO, magnetic field characteristics at MESSENGER, and type II radio burst and in situ measurements from Wind. A triangulation method based on STEREO stereoscopic observations is employed to determine the kinematics of the CME, and the outcome is compared with the result derived from the type II radio burst with a solar wind electron density model. A Grad-Shafranov technique is applied to Wind in situ data to reconstruct the flux-rope structure and compare it with the observation of the solar source region, which helps understand the geo-effectiveness associated with the CME structure. Conclusions are as follows: (1) the CME undergoes an impulsive acceleration, a rapid deceleration before reaching MESSENGER, and then a gradual deceleration out to 1 AU, which should be noticed in CME kinematics models; (2) the type II radio burst was probably produced from a high-density interaction region between the CME-driven shock and a nearby streamer or from the shock flank with lower heights, which implies uncertainties in the determination of CME kinematics using solely type II radio bursts; (3) the flux-rope orientation and chirality deduced from in situ reconstruction at Wind agree with those obtained from solar source observations; (4) the prolonged southward magnetic field near the Earth is mainly from the axial component of the largely southward inclined flux rope, which indicates the importance of predicting both the flux-rope orientation and magnetic field components in geomagnetic activity forecasting.

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Section: Near-earth Properties and Geo-effectivenesssupporting

confidence: 86%

Sun-to-Earth Characteristics of the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection and Associated Geo-Effectiveness

Liu

Wang

et al. 2016

ApJ

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“…Finally, for the event 26 (12 July 2012), the prediction of arrival time of the ICME based on the SXR fluence is early by 28 h, and that based on LASCO observations by 8 h. The CME speed inferred from SXR fluence is high (1545 km s −1 ), while the LASCO measurement is 885 km s −1 . From the analysis of STEREO observations with a drag model of interplanetary transport, Hess and Zhang (2014) derived an initial speed of 1316 km s −1 . This speed would predict a travel time of about 43 h and an ICME arrival near 12 UT on 14 July, which is well in advance of the observed arrival.…”

Section: Assessment Of Failed Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Statistical Relationship Between CME Speed and Soft X-Ray Flux and Fluence of the Associated Flare

Salas-Matamoros

Klein

2015

Sol Phys

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Both observation and theory reveal a close relationship between the kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the thermal energy release traced by the related soft X-ray (SXR) emission. The major problem of empirical studies of this relationship is the distortion of the CME speed by the projection effect in the coronagraphic measurements. We present a re-assessment of the statistical relationship between CME velocities and SXR parameters, using the SOHO/LASCO catalog and GOES whole Sun observations during the period 1996 to 2008. 49 events were identified where CMEs originated near the limb, at central meridian distances between 70• and 85• , and had a reliably identified SXR burst, the parameters of which -peak flux and fluence -could be determined with some confidence. We find similar correlations between the logarithms of CME speed and of SXR peak flux and fluence as several earlier studies, with correlation coefficients of 0.48 and 0.58, respectively. Correlations are slightly improved over an unrestricted CME sample when only limb events are used. However, a broad scatter persists. We derive the parameters of the CME-SXR relationship and use them to predict ICME arrival times at Earth. We show that the CME speed inferred from SXR fluence measurements tends to perform better than SoHO/LASCO measurements in the prediction of ICME arrival times near 1 AU. The estimation of the CME speed from SXR observations can therefore make a valuable contribution to space weather predictions.

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“…CME-driven shocks have been imaged in white light by coronagraphs and heliospheric imagers. They are usually recognized as a faint edge ahead of the CME front in coronagraph observations near the Sun, showing various morphologies such as a bow wave, double front and spheroidal shape (e.g., Vourlidas et al 2003;Liu et al 2008Liu et al , 2013Hess & Zhang 2014;Kwon et al 2014Kwon et al , 2015. The bow-shock morphology is observed around narrow CMEs, while the double-front and spheroidal morphologies are associated with wide and fast events ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structure, Propagation, and Expansion of a Cme-Driven Shock in the Heliosphere: A Revisit of the 2012 July 23 Extreme Storm

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2017

ApJ

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We examine the structure, propagation and expansion of the shock associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme coronal mass ejection (CME). Characteristics of the shock determined from multi-point imaging observations are compared to in situ measurements at different locations and a complex radio type II burst, which according to our definition has multiple branches that may not all be fundamental-harmonic related. The white-light shock signature can be modeled reasonably well by a spherical structure and was expanding backward even on the opposite side of the Sun. The expansion of the shock, which was roughly self-similar after the first ∼1.5 hours from launch, largely dominated over the translation of the shock center for the time period of interest. Our study also suggests a bow-shock morphology around the nose at later times due to the outward motion in combination with the expansion of the ejecta. The shock decayed and failed to reach Mercury in the backward direction and STEREO B and Venus in the lateral directions, as indicated by the imaging and in situ observations. The shock in the nose direction, however, may persist to the far outer heliosphere, with predicted impact on Dawn around 06 UT on July 25 and on Jupiter around 23:30 UT on July 27 by an MHD model. The type II burst shows properties generally consistent with the spatial/temporal variations of the shock deduced from imaging and in situ observations. In particular, the lowfrequency bands agree well with the in situ measurements of a very low density ahead of the shock at STEREO A.

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Stereoscopic Study of the Kinematic Evolution of a Coronal Mass Ejection and Its Driven Shock From the Sun to the Earth and the Prediction of Their Arrival Times

Cited by 70 publications

References 48 publications

Sun-to-Earth Characteristics of the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection and Associated Geo-Effectiveness

Sun-to-Earth Characteristics of the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection and Associated Geo-Effectiveness

On the Statistical Relationship Between CME Speed and Soft X-Ray Flux and Fluence of the Associated Flare

Structure, Propagation, and Expansion of a Cme-Driven Shock in the Heliosphere: A Revisit of the 2012 July 23 Extreme Storm

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