Abstract:I employ Steps-to-War theory to analyze interstate wars in the Middle East by adding an additional escalating step: state sponsorship of non-state actors. Remarkably, however, the present scholarship completely overlooks a comprehensive assessment of the impacts and roles of state-sponsored terrorism on escalation of interstate militarized conflicts. None of the conflict studies focuses on state-sponsored terrorism and escalation of interstate conflict. This gap still exists despite a remarkable growth in the … Show more
“…Considering some of the escalating steps, this study would appropriately help us in understanding the behavior of minor states also, how these escalating factors make states rival and instigate war among states (Khan 2020). This article elucidates that when the military capability of proximate states increases, then autocratic regimes manipulate their existing grievances and past animosities, providing more space for the development and persistence of rivalry and making it increasingly hostile.…”
When assessing the rivalries and wars, understanding their causes is essential. Employing panel regression model, this article examines the data from 1962 to 2001. We find that arms races, contiguity, and joint autocracy play an essential role in making states rival in the Middle East. Rivalry among these states develops and persists when proximate authoritarian states are involved in building their armed forces, suggesting that in the presence of military buildups, autocratic states deliberately manipulate the issues at stake, making the rivalry increasingly hostile. This study also reports that military buildup and contiguity increase the probability of war among the regional rivals. This is because proximity enables states to project their limited military prowess within the periphery, leading to escalation. Howbeit, this study also argues that high level of authoritarianism does not correlate with wars. Instead, autocrats are wary of shaking their fragile states, using armed rivalry only as an outlet of inner tensions.
“…Considering some of the escalating steps, this study would appropriately help us in understanding the behavior of minor states also, how these escalating factors make states rival and instigate war among states (Khan 2020). This article elucidates that when the military capability of proximate states increases, then autocratic regimes manipulate their existing grievances and past animosities, providing more space for the development and persistence of rivalry and making it increasingly hostile.…”
When assessing the rivalries and wars, understanding their causes is essential. Employing panel regression model, this article examines the data from 1962 to 2001. We find that arms races, contiguity, and joint autocracy play an essential role in making states rival in the Middle East. Rivalry among these states develops and persists when proximate authoritarian states are involved in building their armed forces, suggesting that in the presence of military buildups, autocratic states deliberately manipulate the issues at stake, making the rivalry increasingly hostile. This study also reports that military buildup and contiguity increase the probability of war among the regional rivals. This is because proximity enables states to project their limited military prowess within the periphery, leading to escalation. Howbeit, this study also argues that high level of authoritarianism does not correlate with wars. Instead, autocrats are wary of shaking their fragile states, using armed rivalry only as an outlet of inner tensions.
Orta Doğu coğrafyası dünyanın çatışmalarla parçalanmış tek bölgesi olmamasına rağmen, uzun zamandır dünyanın en çatışmalı bölgelerinden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Çatışmalar ve savaşlar, Orta Doğu’nun bölgesel sistemini derinden etkilemiştir. Çatışmalar ve savaşların olumsuz etkileri, devletler arası askeri anlaşmazlıkların nedenini anlamayı oldukça gerekli kılmaktadır. Devletler arası askeri anlaşmazlıklara yönelik tarihsel veri setlerinin varlığı ise askeri anlaşmazlıkların nicel yöntemlerle modellenmesini sağlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada Marwala tarafından kapsamlı bir şekilde incelenen ve açıklanan yedi bağımsız değişken (ittifak, komşuluk, uzaklık, büyük güç, kapasite, demokrasi ve ekonomik bağımlılık) ile Orta Doğu’daki devletler arası askeri anlaşmazlıklar, lojistik regresyon analizi ile modellenmiştir. Nicel analiz sonuçlarına göre bu yedi değişkenden en çok ekonomik bağımlılık faktörü (negatif yönde) ve komşuluk faktörünün (pozitif yönde) Orta Doğu devletlerinin askeri anlaşmazlığı ile ilişkili olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, Orta Doğu devletlerinin ekonomik açıdan bağımlı olduğu devletler ile daha az ve komşularıyla daha fazla askeri anlaşmazlık yaşadığı anlaşılmıştır.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.