Steady‐state seismic slip – A precise recurrence model

Bufe, Charles G.; Harsh, Philip Whaley; Burford, R. O.

doi:10.1029/gl004i002p00091

Cited by 121 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Although most of the earthquake generation models currently used for seismic hazard evaluation assume a Poisson (Cornell 1968;Caputo 1974;Shah and Movassate 1975) or other memory-less distributions, studies in the last few decades have concluded that the large earthquakes in many regions are temporally dependent (Bufe et al 1977;Sykes and Quittmeyer 1981;Papazachos 1989;Stein et al 1997;Parsons et al 2000). Two kinds of time-dependent models have been suggested: the slip-predictable model and timepredictable model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia

Sayıl

Osmanşahin

2007

Nat Hazards

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In order to investigate the seismicity of western Anatolia limited with the coordinates of 36°-40°N, 26°-32°E, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, seismic risk and recurrence period have been computed. The data belonging to both the historical period before 1900 (I 0 ! 5.0 corresponding to M S ! 4.4) and the instrumental period until the end of 2006 (M S ! 4.0) has been used in the analysis. The study area has been divided into 13 sub-regions due to certain seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic models and geology of the region. All the computations have been performed for these sub-regions, separately. According to the results, a and b values in the computed magnitude-frequency relations are in the intervals 3.19±0.17 -5.15±0.52 and 0.42±0.05 -0.66±0.07, respectively. The highest b values have been determined for sub-regions 3 and 12 (Demirci-Gediz and Gökova Gulf-Mugla-Gölhisar). The lowest b values have also been determined for sub-regions 1 and 9 (Balıkesir and Bodrum-_ Istanköy). Finally, seismic risk and recurrence period computations from a and b values have shown as expected that sub-regions 1 and 9 which have the lowest b values and the highest risks and the shortestrecurrence periods.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia

Sayıl

Osmanşahin

2007

Nat Hazards

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“…These models are based on the fact that the time of occurrence and the magnitude of an earthquake in a region are independent of the time and magnitude of the previous and subsequent earthquakes. The independence behaviour has been observed in some seismic sequences in some regions (Gardner and Knopoff 1974) but the temporal dependence in earthquakes is observed in several regions of the world (Bufe et al 1977;Sykes and Quittmeyer 1981;Papazachos 1989;Papadimitriou and Papazachos 1994). There are two types of models concerning the relationship between the slip amount of an earthquake and time of occurrence of a large earthquake, namely, slip-predictable model and time-predictable model (Bufe et al 1977;Shimazaki and Nakata 1980).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Thus, the larger the last earthquake is, the longer is the time to the next earthquake (Shimazaki and Nakata 1980). A number of evidences are present for time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes along plate boundaries (Bufe et al 1977;Shimazaki and Nakata 1980;Sykes and Quittmeyer 1981). Bufe et al (1977) proposed a model of seismic slip and recurrence intervals for a segment of a fault in northern California and observed that the time interval is proportional to the amount of displacement in the preceding earthquake.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

An application of regional time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake

et al. 2010

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A regional time and magnitude predictable model has been applied to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes in the vicinity of 8 October 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake (25°-40°N and 65°-85°E), which includes India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Hindukush, Pamirs, Mangolia and Tien-Shan. This region has been divided into 17 seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismotectonics and geomorphological criteria. A complete earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental) of magnitude Ms C 5.5 during the period 1853-2005 has been used in the analysis. According to this model, the magnitude of preceding earthquake governs the time of occurrence and magnitude of future mainshock in the sequence. The interevent time between successive mainshocks with magnitude equal to or greater than a minimum magnitude threshold were considered and used for long-term earthquake prediction in each of seismogenic sources. The interevent times and magnitudes of mainshocks have been used to determine the following predictive relations: logT t = 0.05 M min ? 0.09 M p -0.01 log M 0 ? 01.14; and M f = 0.21 M min -0.01 M p ? 0.03 log M 0 ? 7.21 where, T t is the interevent time of successive mainshocks, M min is minimum magnitude threshold considered, M p is magnitude of preceding mainshock, M f is magnitude of following mainshock and M 0 is the seismic moment released per year in each seismogenic source. It was found that the magnitude of following mainshock (M f ) does not depend on the interevent time (T t ), which indicates the ability to predict the time of occurrence of future mainshock. A negative correlation between magnitude of following mainshock (M f ) and preceding mainshock (M p ) indicates that the larger earthquake is followed by smaller one and vice versa. The above equations have been used for the seismic hazard assessment in the

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“…The time-predictable model appears to have been successful in predicting the timing of one event on the Calaveras fault, California (BUFE et al, 1977Valparaiso, Chile, earthquake (NISHENKO, 1985. This model also formed the basis of the Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment (BAKUN and LINDH, 1985;BAKUN and MCEVILLY, 1984).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Predictability of Large Earthquakes: Evidence from an Analogue Model of Earthquake Rupture

Hamilton¹,

McCloskey²

1998

Pure appl. geophys.

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The recurrence behaviour of large earthquakes, in several tectonic settings, has been explained by simple models of stress accumulation and release which assume that the fault stress state is solely a function of the far-field tectonic strain rate. However, the limited dataset of large event recurrence intervals has been a major obstacle to the verification of these and other models. We present the results from a simple analogue model of earthquake rupture and stick-slip which displays power-law frequency-size statistics and involves many cycles of large events. We show that, despite the macroscopic homogeneity of the model, large events do not conform to simple deterministic time-or slip-predictable patterns. However, when the recurrence intervals for large events are divided by the median recurrence interval, the normalized data are composed of two distinct lognormally distributed populations. One population is characterized by events which are strongly clustered in time with relatively short recurrence intervals and low moment release, the other by events which are weakly clustered in time with median-sized recurrence intervals. It is suggested that the long-term recurrence behaviour of large earthquakes, whilst being non-deterministic, may be modelled by a well-defined statistical distribution of recurrence intervals.

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Steady‐state seismic slip – A precise recurrence model

Cited by 121 publications

References 12 publications

An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia

An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia

An application of regional time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake

The Predictability of Large Earthquakes: Evidence from an Analogue Model of Earthquake Rupture

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