Statistical risk warnings in gambling

Abstract

Gambling is considered a public health issue by many researchers, similarly to alcohol or obesity. Statistical risk warnings on gambling products can be considered a public health intervention that encourages safer gambling while preserving freedom of consumer choice. Statistical risk warnings may be useful to gamblers, given that net gambling losses are the primary driver of harm and that gambling products vary greatly in the degree to which they facilitate losses. However, there is some doubt as to whether statistical risk warnings are, in their current form, effective at reducing gambling harm. Here, we consider current applications and evidence, discuss product-specific issues around a range of gambling products and suggest future directions. Our primary recommendation is that current statistical risk warnings can be improved and also applied to a wider range of gambling products. Such an approach should help consumers to make more informed judgements and potentially encourage gambling operators to compete more directly on the relative ‘price’ of gambling products.

Probability disclosures are not enough: Reducing loot box reward complexity as a part of ethical video game design

“…Information-based interventions to reduce harm have been recommended both in gambling (Livingstone et al, 2019;Newall et al, 2020) and i loot boxes (King & Delfabbro, 2019b;McCaffrey, 2019). The nonintuitive probabilities of winning loot box rewards represent one reason in favour of providing loot box probability disclosures.…”

“…The People's Republic of China (PRC) has adopted a unique approach to loot box regulation by requiring video game companies to disclose the probabilities of obtaining potential rewards (Xiao & Henderson, 2019). This non-restrictive approach mimics information-based interventions for reducing gambling-related harms (Livingstone et al, 2019;Newall et al, 2020), and seemingly balances harm prevention whilst preserving the consumer's freedom to choose (Xiao et al, 2021). This disclosure-based approach has been recommended for adoption in the loot box context (King & Delfabbro, 2019b;McCaffrey, 2019).…”

Financial inducements in gambling marketing: An information disclosure proposal to inform gamblers of their true economic value

“…The house edge, otherwise known as the house advantage or the house margin, is the statistical reality underlying the profitability of the gambling industry (Auer et al, 2012;Eggert, 2004;Newall, Walasek, Hassanniakalager, et al, 2020;Turner, 2011;Woolley et al, 2013). Roulette is a relatively simple gambling game to demonstrate how the house edge means that gamblers can expect to lose money over time.…”

“…However, a European roulette wheel also has the number zero shown in green, meaning that both bet on red or black will lose on zero, so these bets have a slightly less than even chance of doubling the gambler's wager. The zero's presence means that on average each $100 bet will only return $97.30, which is commonly expressed as a house edge of 2.7% (Newall, Walasek, Hassanniakalager, et al, 2020). American roulette has a slightly higher house edge of 5.3%, which makes this version more profitable for gambling operators, which occurs because American roulette wheels have another segment shown in green, called the "double zero" (Turner & Shi, 2015).…”

Cryptocurrencies as Gamblified Financial Assets and Cryptocasinos: Novel Risks for a Public Health Approach to Gambling

“…One such attempted revolution was in the design of online casinos. The odds of winning on casino games such as roulette are set so that gamblers lose money over time, a concept called the 'house edge' (Newall et al 2020). Two cryptocurrencies were launched to promote 'edgeless' cryptocasinos, where the odds of winning were fair (Newall and Andrade 2022).…”