Statistical properties of earthquakes clustering

Vecchio, A.; Carbone, V.; Sorriso‐Valvo, L.; Rose, C. De; Guerra, I.; Harabaglia, Paolo

doi:10.5194/npg-15-333-2008

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…If the data set where truly poissonian, SP(Δt) exp (−μΔt) (where μ is the average value of Δt), so that λ should be constant over the entire Δt i data set. This approach is even more powerful than that devised by Vecchio et al (2008).…”

Section: Internal Correlation Of Global Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Long Range Clustering of Global Seismicity and its Correlation With Solar Activity: A New Perspective for Earthquake Forecasting

Marchitelli¹,

Troise²,

Harabaglia³

et al. 2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. We have recently demonstrated this observation can be explained by the correlation of global seismicity with solar activity. We inferred such a clear correlation, highly statistically significant, analyzing the ISI-GEM catalog 1996-2016, as compared to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite data, reporting proton density and proton velocity in the same period. However, some questions could arise that the internal correlation of global seismicity could be mainly due to local earthquake clustering, which is a well-recognized process depending on physical mechanisms of local stress transfer. We then apply, to the ISI-GEM catalog, a simple and appropriate de-clustering procedure, meant to recognize and eliminate local clustering. As a result, we again obtain a non poissonian, internally correlated catalog, which shows the same, high level correlation with the proton density linked to solar activity. We can hence confirm that global seismicity contains a long-range correlation, not linked to local clustering processes, which is clearly linked to solar activity. Once we explain in some details the proposed mechanism for such correlation, we also give insight on how such mechanism could be used, in a near future, to help in earthquake forecasting.

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Section: Internal Correlation Of Global Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Long Range Clustering of Global Seismicity and its Correlation With Solar Activity: A New Perspective for Earthquake Forecasting

Marchitelli¹,

Troise²,

Harabaglia³

et al. 2020

Front. Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. We have recently demonstrated this observation can be explained by the correlation of global seismicity with solar activity. We inferred such a clear correlation, highly statistically significant, analyzing the ISI-GEM catalog 1996-2016, as compared to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite data, reporting proton density and proton velocity in the same period. However, some questions could arise that the internal correlation of global seismicity could be mainly due to local earthquake clustering, which is a well-recognized process depending on physical mechanisms of local stress transfer. We then apply, to the ISI-GEM catalog, a simple and appropriate de-clustering procedure, meant to recognize and eliminate local clustering. As a result, we again obtain a non poissonian, internally correlated catalog, which shows the same, high level correlation with the proton density linked to solar activity. We can hence confirm that global seismicity contains a long-range correlation, not linked to local clustering processes, which is clearly linked to solar activity. Once we explain in some details the proposed mechanism for such correlation, we also give insight on how such mechanism could be used, in a near future, to help in earthquake forecasting.

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“…The final step consists in evaluating if R is significantly different from 1, for any of the variables V, in any of the conditions C within a V T range. This means we need to devise a test starting from the assumption that earthquake occurrence is not poissonian [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] . We choose to create 10 5 synthetic data sets, using the real data inter-event time intervals randomly combined.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide

Marchitelli

Harabaglia

Troise

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant correlation of the global seismicity with one of the possible mechanisms has been demonstrated yet. In this paper, we analyze 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the SOHO satellite, and the worldwide seismicity in the corresponding period, as reported by the ISC-GEM catalogue. We found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M > 5.6), with a time shift of one day. The significance of such correlation is very high, with probability to be wrong lower than 10-5. the correlation increases with the magnitude threshold of the seismic catalogue. A tentative model explaining such a correlation is also proposed, in terms of the reverse piezoelectric effect induced by the applied electric field related to the proton density. This result opens new perspectives in seismological interpretations, as well as in earthquake forecast. Worldwide seismicity does not follow a Poisson distribution 1 , not even locally 2. Many authors have proposed specific statistical distributions to describe such a non-poissonian behavior 3-7 but none of these is really satisfactory, probably because the underlying physical process has not been really understood. Many authors have hypothesized that a tidal component may show up in earthquake activity (e.g. 8,9) but generalized evidence has never been proven. Quite recently, some authors 10 suggested that earthquake occurrence might be linked to earth rotation speed variations. There is also a smaller number of researchers that studied possible links among solar activity, electromagnetic storms and earthquakes (e.g. 11-16). The first idea that sunspots could influence the earthquake occurrence dates back 1853, and is due to the great solar astronomer Wolf 17. Since then, a number of scientists has reported some kind of relationship between solar activity and earthquake occurrence 16,18,19 ; or among global seismicity and geomagnetic variation 15,20 or magnetic storms 21,22. Also, some mechanisms have been proposed to justify such correlations: small changes induced by Sun-Earth coupling in the Earth's rotation speed 23 ; eddy electric currents induced in faults, heating them and reducing shear strength 24 ; or piezoelectric increase in fault stress caused by induced currents 25. However, none of these studies allowed achieving a statistically significant conclusion about the likelihood of such mechanisms. On the contrary, 26 argued that there is no convincing argument, statistically grounded, demonstrating solar-terrestrial interaction favoring earthquake occurrence. However, the large interest nowadays for possible interactions between earthquake occurrence and extra-terrestrial (mainly solar) activity, is testified for instance by the Project CSES-LIMADOU, a Chinese-Italian cooperation aimed to launc...

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“…Seismic events are complex spatial-temporal phenomena [Turcotte 1993, Sornette 1999, Pavlos et al 2007, Vecchio et al 2008, Sornette and Werner 2009, since they occur in clusters and exhibit scale-invariant characteristics. The most typical description in such cases is the division of the earthquakes into foreshocks, main quakes and aftershocks.…”

Section: Aftershocks Spatial Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes in aftershocks series

Marekova

2014

Annals of Geophysics

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<p>The earthquake spatial distribution is being studied, using catalogs for different recent aftershock series. The quality of the available data, taking into account the completeness of the magnitude, is examined. Based on the analysis of the catalogs, it was determined that the probability densities of the inter-event distance distribution collapse into a single curve when the data were rescaled. The collapse of the data provides a clear illustration of aftershock-occurrence self-similarity in space.</p>

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Statistical properties of earthquakes clustering

Cited by 13 publications

References 13 publications

On the Long Range Clustering of Global Seismicity and its Correlation With Solar Activity: A New Perspective for Earthquake Forecasting

On the Long Range Clustering of Global Seismicity and its Correlation With Solar Activity: A New Perspective for Earthquake Forecasting

On the correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide

Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes in aftershocks series

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